液化石油气日报：国内现货价格下跌，市场驱动不足-20251210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment strategy is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Crude oil price rebound was blocked and retraced, while the LPG outer market was relatively strong, and the high discount supported the cost of arrival. However, the domestic market was relatively weak, and the spot price mainly declined yesterday. The ether - post carbon four in East China remained in an inverted state with civil gas, which exerted certain pressure on the pricing of the futures market. Although overseas supply tightened marginally, the overall supply - demand pattern of LPG did not reverse in the medium term. The supply in the Middle East and North America would continue to grow, and the downstream chemical demand was limited by the lack of profit growth momentum, which would restrict the upside space of the market. Overall, the LPG futures market had certain short - term support, but the upward driving force was limited, and it would face pressure again after the supply recovered [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - On December 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4390 - 4470; Northeast market, 4140 - 4200; North China market, 4250 - 4450; East China market, 4270 - 4455; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4890; Northwest market, 4300 - 4470; South China market, 4340 - 4550 [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 596 US dollars/ton, stable, and butane was 586 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4644 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, and butane was 4566 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China was 589 US dollars/ton, stable, and butane was 579 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted price of propane was 4589 yuan/ton, stable, and butane was 4511 yuan/ton, stable [1] Group 4: Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly wait and see in the short term [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]