石油沥青日报：成本端支撑转弱，市场反弹动力仍不足-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost-side support for asphalt has weakened, and the market's rebound momentum remains insufficient. The asphalt market's downside may be limited, but a bottom rebound requires more stimulating factors, waiting for the release of winter storage demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 9th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,943 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 201,816 lots, up 6,677 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,841 lots, down 4,034 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,860 - 3,370 yuan/ton; South China, 2,930 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [2] - The rebound of crude oil prices has stalled and retraced, weakening the cost-side support for asphalt, and the futures market has been oscillating in a low range. In the spot market, asphalt prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Northwest, Shandong, East China, and South China declined. The overall asphalt fundamentals remain in a weak supply and demand situation, and future terminal demand may decline further with the cooling. The profits of refineries with quotas are relatively attractive, and local supply competition is fierce, suppressing spot prices. As the winter storage demand has not shown signs of large-scale release, market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3]