Dangote炼厂RFCC装置已再度进入检修

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.35%, at 2,410 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.56%, at 2,997 yuan/ton [1] - After the rebound, crude oil prices have retraced again, indicating that the market's expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. In the medium term, the cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the current overall market contradictions are limited. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil is in the adjustment phase, and the crack spread has dropped significantly from its high level. With the release of increased supply from the Middle East, the market needs an increase in refinery demand to offset it. After the price ratio dropped, its economic viability began to show, which will provide some support at the bottom [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance time of Azul Refinery, the shipping volume tracked in Kuwait since November remains zero. In addition, the RFCC unit of Dangote Refinery has been under maintenance since December 8 (scheduled maintenance, expected to last until January 26). During the maintenance period, Nigeria's low-sulfur fuel oil exports may increase again. The short-term trend of the high-low sulfur spread is oscillating and slightly bullish, but the upside space is expected to be limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.35%, at 2,410 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.56%, at 2,997 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices retraced after a rebound, indicating that the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed. The cost side will continue to suppress the unilateral price of fuel oil in the medium term [1] - The overall market contradictions in the fuel oil market are limited. The high-sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, and the crack spread has dropped from its high. With increased Middle Eastern supply, refinery demand needs to rise. The economic viability of high-sulfur fuel oil has emerged, providing some support [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is generally ample with local reductions. The extended maintenance of Azul Refinery has led to zero shipping in Kuwait since November. Dangote Refinery's RFCC unit is under maintenance from December 8 to January 26, and Nigeria's low-sulfur fuel oil exports may increase. The high-low sulfur spread is oscillating and slightly bullish, with limited upside [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]