黑色金属数据日报-20251210

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel products are expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on macro - level disturbances. The supply - demand of five steel products shows a weakening trend, with pressure on furnace materials. Plate products have prominent inventory - reduction pressure, which restricts price increases and the willingness to hold goods. Iron - water production decline has a negative impact on cost support [1]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon prices will follow the black - metal sector to fluctuate, with insufficient driving forces. Due to weakening steel prices, shrinking steel - mill profits, and reduced iron - water production, the direct demand for alloys is expected to decline. Although alloy - factory profits are poor, production remains relatively high, leading to supply over - capacity and inventory accumulation [2]. - For coking coal and coke, futures prices have dropped significantly, and there is no significant positive news from major meetings this week. On the spot side, a second round of coke price cuts is expected, and coking - coal auctions are weak. On the futures side, prices have hit new lows after breaking key positions, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [2]. - Iron ore faces significant upward pressure. In the short - term, port arrivals are increasing, and in the medium - term, inventory is expected to continue to rise under the pressure of reduced iron - water production. The decline in steel - mill profitability has affected production intentions, and the inventory pressure makes it difficult for the price to break through the upper limit of the oscillation range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Fluctuations: On December 9th, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3111.00 yuan/ton (down 59.00 yuan, - 1.86%), HC2610 at 3258.00 yuan/ton (down 51.00 yuan, - 1.54%), etc. For near - month contracts (main contracts), RB2605 closed at 3079.00 yuan/ton (down 49.00 yuan, - 1.57%), HC2605 at 3252.00 yuan/ton (down 47.00 yuan, - 1.42%), etc [1]. - Spreads and Ratios: On December 9th, the cross - month spread of RB2605 - 2610 was - 32.00 yuan/ton, the volume - to - rebar spread was 173.00 yuan, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.06, etc [1]. Spot Market - Steel Products: On December 9th, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3240.00 yuan/ton (down 20.00 yuan), Tianjin rebar at 3140.00 yuan/ton (down 30.00 yuan), etc. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3230.00 yuan/ton (down 40.00 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3270.00 yuan/ton (down 30.00 yuan), etc [1]. - Raw Materials: On December 9th, Qingdao Port's Super Special Powder was 667.00 yuan/ton (down 3.00 yuan), Ganqimaodu's coking refined coal was 1170.00 yuan/ton, etc [1]. Investment Strategies - Steel Products: Adopt a low - level oscillation approach for single - side trading; conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil futures - cash arbitrage or use options for procurement and sales [2]. - Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon: Investment clients can short - sell on rallies, and industrial clients can use accumulated - strike options to protect their spot positions [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2]. - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [2].