——宏观专题报告：月度前瞻：经济量价回升？-20251210

Economic Highlights - In November, manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in production despite high inventory constraints[1] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% for November, supported by accelerated inventory destocking[1] - Exports rebounded to 5.9% in November after a decline to -1.1% in October, driven by an increase in working days and reduced production overhang effects[1] Investment and Consumption Insights - Investment pressures are alleviating as the impact of debt reduction on investment is improving, with construction investment remaining at -16% in October[2] - Service consumption is expected to maintain high levels due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite a decline in "trade-in" programs[2] - The proportion of special refinancing bonds has decreased to around 20%, indicating a potential improvement in investment dynamics[2] Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing investment remains under pressure due to companies prioritizing debt repayment over new investments, with accounts receivable growth dropping to 5.2% in October[2] - Real estate investment and sales are projected to decline further, with November seeing a 33.1% year-on-year drop in commodity housing sales[2] - The "anti-involution" policy's slow progress in the manufacturing sector is keeping cost rates at historically high levels, impacting profitability[2] Inflation and Price Trends - November's CPI is expected to rise to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables (10.1%) and gold[3] - PPI is anticipated to recover slightly to around -2% due to ongoing price pressures from upstream commodities like coal and copper, despite weak downstream price recovery[3] - Core CPI is likely to show limited improvement, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the downstream sector[3]