现货成交相对清淡，铅价暂陷震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The global lead concentrate market remains in a tight balance. Domestic TC is hovering at a low level, and the negative processing fee range for imported ores is expanding. Mines are reluctant to sell, forcing smelters to cut production passively. The operating rate of domestic primary lead smelters is only 60%, and smelters in Hunan and Yunnan are undergoing maintenance until January. Secondary lead production is limited due to the scarcity of waste battery supplies and limited profit recovery, resulting in insufficient overall supply elasticity. Although it is the off - season for lead - acid batteries on the demand side, social inventories have continuously declined to a two - year low, and the spot premium is firm, providing a buffer for prices. Additionally, the impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be beneficial to the entire non - ferrous metal sector. Therefore, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between 17,300 yuan/ton and 17,350 yuan/ton this week [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On December 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$51.57/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,900 yuan/ton, 10,075 yuan/ton, and 10,250 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On December 9, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,310 yuan/ton and closed at 17,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,748 lots, a decrease of 2,313 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 40,620 lots, a decrease of 2,487 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,345 yuan/ton and a low of 17,145 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,125 yuan/ton and closed at 17,025 yuan/ton, a 1.22% decline from the afternoon closing price. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price decreased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers quoted a discount of 100 - 500 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract, and the discount narrowed slightly. In Hunan, smelters of deliverable brand lead quoted a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, and some traders sold at a discount of 20 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. As lead prices weakened, downstream buyers were somewhat hesitant, and some smelters were still reluctant to sell after their inventories declined, resulting in light trading in the spot market [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On December 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the same period last week. As of December 9, the LME lead inventory was 236,925 tons, a decrease of 3,725 tons from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Strategy - It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between 17,300 yuan/ton and 17,350 yuan/ton this week [3]