新能源及有色金属日报：冶炼亏损持续扩大-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the zinc market have shifted from previously negative to positive. The current zinc valuation is low, and there is optimism about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The zinc market is expected to perform well [5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is $166.73 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price changed by 60 yuan/ton to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price changed by 70 yuan/ton to 23,100 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price changed by 60 yuan/ton to 23,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures: On December 9, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,250 yuan/ton and closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 129,703 lots, and the position was 101,254 lots. The highest price was 23,255 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,005 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: As of December 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 136,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 58,150 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis The TC of the zinc ore end continues to decline. With the absolute price falling from a high level, the losses of smelters have expanded. The raw material inventory of smelters is still decreasing, and their procurement enthusiasm remains high, which may lead to a continuous decline in TC. The smelting enthusiasm has significantly declined, and the smelting output has decreased month - on - month, alleviating the supply pressure. The consumption end maintains strong resilience, the social inventory has continued to decline, the spot premium has shown a stable and positive performance, and the discount of the near - month contract has narrowed to par. The LME inventory remains at a low level, the spot premium is relatively high, and the export window remains open [5]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Calendar spread positive arbitrage [6].