缺乏明显驱动，板块整体震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [3][4][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - The market lacks obvious drivers, and each commodity sector is experiencing overall fluctuations. The prices of cotton, sugar, and pulp are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and external market conditions [1][2][3][6][7] Group 3: Cotton Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,740 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,843 yuan/ton, a change of -4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1103, a change of +6 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,999 yuan/ton, a change of -10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1259, a change of +0 from the previous day [1] - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.12% and a month-on-month increase of 7.22%. From January to November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is concentrated on the market, with large short-term supply pressure, and the global textile terminal consumption is still weak. In the long term, the US cotton is in a low-valued range, with limited further downward space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to continue to increase. With the end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the cotton production forecast has risen again. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging orders. On the demand side, the downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity, the domestic cotton consumption has increased, and the supply and demand in the new season are not expected to be too loose. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Sugar Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5343 yuan/ton, a change of +6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 67, a change of -6 from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5345 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 2, a change of -6 from the previous day [3] - Brazil exported 817,500 tons of sugar in the first week of December, with an average daily export volume of 163,500 tons, a 21% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 134,900 tons in December of the previous year [3] Market Analysis - The global sugar production surplus continues to suppress the market, but the current negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. In the short term, the downward space of the international sugar price is limited, but there is no sign of a reversal. In the long term, it depends on the weather and the policies of major producing countries next year [3] - Domestically, the sugar production is expected to continue to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started to crush sugar, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota is still high, and the import volume from July to October has increased, increasing the supply pressure [3] Strategy - The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills have the intention to support the price at the beginning of the crushing season. The short-term downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but attention should be paid to the disturbance of the capital side to the market, and there is a possibility of a new low [4][5] Group 5: Pulp Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5386 yuan/ton, a change of -6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 114, a change of +6 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5005 yuan/ton, a change of +0 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 381, a change of +6 from the previous day [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some showing a weakening trend. The trading in the market was light, and the prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets decreased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there have been continuous news about overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill in Canada, and the Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso will be temporarily shut down [7] - On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased significantly in October, indicating some improvement in demand. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand has been insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is not high, and the overall output of finished paper has not increased significantly. The raw material procurement mentality of downstream paper mills is cautious, and the procurement willingness is generally low, resulting in the domestic port inventory still being at a historical high [7] Strategy - Due to the previous negative factors being gradually digested by the market, affected by short-covering and overseas supply disturbances, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply and demand situation, the upward space of the pulp price may be limited. Attention should also be paid to the disturbance of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts to the market [8]