EG负荷下降，价格跌后反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,691 yuan/ton (a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.27%), and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,646 yuan/ton (a change of -44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -1.19%). The spot basis of EG in East China was -11 yuan/ton (a decrease of -2 yuan/ton month-on-month). Recently, Sanjiang reduced its load, and Xinjiang Zhongkun planned to carry out maintenance, both of which were unplanned. As a result, the EG load decreased, and the price rebounded after a decline [1] - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$90/ton (a decrease of -$5/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1,138 yuan/ton (a decrease of -29 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1] - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 819,000 tons (an increase of 66,000 tons month-on-month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 719,000 tons (an increase of 11,000 tons month-on-month). According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 163,000 tons, and the arrivals at the auxiliary ports were 51,000 tons; this week, the total planned arrivals at the main ports in East China are 155,000 tons, and the arrivals at the auxiliary ports are 20,000 tons, which is relatively high overall. It is expected that the inventory at the main ports will continue to accumulate [2] - On the supply side, as the maintenance is implemented, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from its high level, and the short-term supply pressure has been alleviated. However, high supply will resume in January. In the future, attention should be paid to the new maintenance situation of ethylene glycol plants after the price decline. In terms of overseas supply, the supply of Middle Eastern goods is at a high level, and there are many long-distance cargo arrivals within the month. The port inventory will still show an upward trend in the first half of the month. On the demand side, the polyester load remains firm at a low inventory level, but the orders are gradually weakening [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,691 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,646 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China was -11 yuan/ton [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$90/ton, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -1,138 yuan/ton [1] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Downstream Production and Sales and Operating Rate - No specific data or analysis provided in the given text Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 819,000 tons, and according to Longzhong data, it was 719,000 tons. The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports are relatively high, and the inventory at the main ports is expected to continue to accumulate [2]