对二甲苯：需求季节性转弱，供应仍偏紧，高位震荡市，PTA：成本支撑，月差正套，MEG：装置减产规模扩大，下方空间有限

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PX market is in a high - level volatile state, with tight supply and demand, and may be strong before the holiday. It is recommended to hold long PX and short BZ positions. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips [8]. - The PTA market is also in a high - level volatile state, supported by PX costs. It is recommended to hold long PX and short PTA positions in the 05 contract and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be vigilant against the negative feedback of the industrial chain caused by the early holiday of terminals from late December to early January [9]. - The MEG market has short - term support due to multiple device planned out - of - schedule load reductions. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton. However, in the medium term, it is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [10][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - On December 9, the Asian paraxylene UNV1/China and FOB Korea indicators both fell by $9/ton compared to the previous day. The market activity was quiet, and the daily price fluctuations of PX spot were mainly driven by upstream crude oil. Asian market participants are concerned about the development of the physical market in 2026 and the PX regular contract settlement [4][5]. - As the PX contract negotiation nears the end, the focus will gradually shift to the PTA contract negotiation. A 530,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Kuwait and a 600,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plan to shut down for maintenance. A 1,000,000 - ton/year EO/EG plant in Zhejiang has seen a continuous decline in load. The sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are average [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of paraxylene is - 1, PTA is - 1, and MEG is 0 [8]. Futures and Spot Data - The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures all declined yesterday, with the decline rates of - 1.42%, - 1.07%, - 0.27%, - 0.71%, and - 2.51% respectively. The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent in the spot market also decreased compared to the previous day [2]. PX Market - The domestic PX operating rate remains at 88.2% (- 0.3%). The GS device has a shutdown plan in December, the Middle East Satorp700,000 - ton device restarts. The supply side of PX is expected to shrink. The PTA operating rate remains at 73.7%. Under the current high - operating mode of polyester, there is a certain supply gap for PX. The PXN continues to expand, and the supply recovery space of PX is limited. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the PX01 contract [8]. PTA Market - The PTA operating rate this week remains at 73.7%. The polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 91.8% (+ 0.3%). Supported by the cost of PX, the unilateral price is in a high - level volatile state. The current PTA processing fee is 170 yuan/ton. If there are certain warehouse receipts in the 01 - contract PX, there may be an opportunity for the PTA processing fee to expand [9]. MEG Market - Multiple MEG devices have announced production cuts. According to the current new maintenance situation, there will be no inventory accumulation or even a small - scale inventory reduction in December. In the medium term, new devices such as Ningxia Kunpeng and BASF Zhanjiang will be put into production successively, and the polyester device operating rate will drop to 84% in February. The upper - price limit has not been opened, and the unilateral price is recommended to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 yuan/ton [10][11]