中辉有色观点-20251210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Strong [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: The gold - silver ratio is approaching the historical low range, and attention should be paid to fluctuations. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver should not be chased high or shorted in the short term, and long - term positions should be held [2][3]. - Copper: The market sentiment is cautious. In the short term, it is recommended to move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound opportunity. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish [4][6]. - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment has cooled, and zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9]. - Aluminum: Terminal demand is weakening, and aluminum prices are falling from high levels. It is recommended to stop profit and wait and see in the short term [10][13]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are under pressure due to off - season inventory. It is recommended to sell on rallies [14][17]. - Lithium carbonate: Total inventory continues to decline, and it is recommended to go long on dips [18][21]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market review: Silver first broke through $60 per ounce, and traders bet on further Fed easing and supply shortages [2]. - Basic logic: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting; US employment data is mixed; central banks continue to buy gold; long - term gold benefits from multiple factors, and silver's trading logic requires caution in the short term [2][3]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 935. Long - term value - oriented positions should continue to be held. Be vigilant about the high - volatility risk of silver [3]. Copper - Market review: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating [4]. - Industrial logic: Global copper concentrate supply remains tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories are accumulating, but there is still a delivery risk [5]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc - Market review: Shanghai zinc is falling under pressure [7]. - Industrial logic: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are falling, and supply may shrink. Consumption is in the off - season, and short - term supply and demand are both weak, with inventory declining in the off - season [8]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, zinc is under pressure. Sell - hedging can be lightly positioned on rallies. In the medium and long term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai zinc and London zinc [9]. Aluminum - Market review: Aluminum prices' rebound is under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. - Industrial logic: For electrolytic aluminum, costs may increase, and demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is in an over - supply situation [12]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, stop profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory and the price range of Shanghai aluminum [13]. Nickel - Market review: Nickel prices' rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is under pressure [14]. - Industrial logic: Indonesia plans to cut nickel production, but inventories are rising. Stainless steel consumption is in the off - season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [16]. - Strategy recommendation: Sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory and the price range of nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market review: The main contract LC2605 opened high and closed low, and the commodity market was weak in the afternoon [18]. - Industrial logic: Total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is strong, and prices have no room for a deep decline. There will be a correction recently, waiting for an opportunity to go long after stabilization [20]. - Strategy recommendation: Go long on dips in the range of [91000 - 95000] [21].