招银国际每日投资策略-20251210

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,434, down 1.29% for the day but up 26.79% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 Index in the US closed at 6,841, down 0.09% for the day and up 16.30% year-to-date [1] - The Japanese Nikkei 225 saw a slight increase of 0.14%, with a year-to-date increase of 26.97% [1] Hong Kong Stock Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index closed at 46,622, down 0.49% for the day and up 32.69% year-to-date [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index decreased by 1.56%, with a year-to-date increase of 19.58% [2] Chinese Stock Market Insights - The Chinese stock market experienced a pullback, with Hong Kong stocks declining more than A-shares, particularly in materials, energy, and real estate sectors [3] - The net buying from southbound trading was HKD 530 million, with Tencent, Xiaomi, and Alibaba seeing the most net buying [3] - The forecast for global and Chinese energy storage battery shipments is optimistic, with an expected growth rate exceeding 80% this year [3] Industry Analysis: Internet Sector - The year 2026 is projected to be crucial for capturing user attention in the AI era, focusing on lowering usage barriers and enhancing decision-making efficiency [4] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [4] - Recommended stocks include Tencent, Alibaba, and Kuaishou for their AI-related growth potential [4] Consumer Sector Insights - The e-commerce sector is expected to benefit from national subsidies, with experience-based consumption (like travel and gaming) projected to grow faster than physical goods [5] - The competition in the local lifestyle sector is intensifying, but the online travel agency (OTA) sector shows resilience [5] Technology Sector Outlook - The AI industry is expected to see intensified competition and increased application monetization in 2026, with a focus on enhancing model capabilities [6][7] - Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are recommended for their potential in AI-driven revenue growth [8] Cloud Services Growth - Cloud service revenue growth is accelerating, with a significant increase in capital expenditures driven by demand [9] - AI investments are expected to enhance profit margins and create new revenue opportunities [9] AI Monetization Opportunities - The global AI spending is projected to grow by 37% to USD 2 trillion in 2026, with a focus on AI applications in various sectors [10] - Key areas for investment include AI applications in programming, creative generation, and enterprise intelligence [10]