有色金属周度观点-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides weekly views on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on market conditions and macro - economic factors. It also mentions potential risks and opportunities for each metal in the short and medium - term [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Situation: Last week, copper prices hit record highs both at home and abroad. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. Domestic copper sales are active, and there is an expected production increase in December. LME copper cash premium decreased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants changed rapidly [1]. - Supply: The expected reduction of primary copper production by domestic smelters may be postponed. The current prices of scrap and fully refined products still support smelting capacity [1]. - Demand: The market trades based on expectations, and the current spot supply - demand relationship has little impact. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices will pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, copper prices may correct from record highs [1]. - Investment Strategy: Hold long positions along the M5 moving average and consider partial active profit - taking [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Market Situation: The operating capacity of domestic alumina remains at a historical high of 96 million tons. The alumina balance is in a surplus state, and inventory increased last week. Exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out in December and January [1]. - Supply: There is still a profit in alumina production based on cost accounting, so there is no large - scale production reduction. The downside space of the futures price may be limited when the basis is large [1]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month [1]. - Investment Strategy: The medium - term trend is oscillating upward, but due to the approaching Fed meeting, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [1]. Zinc - Market Situation: Domestic zinc mines are in short supply, and smelter maintenance is expanding. LME zinc inventory increased, and the 0 - 3 month spot premium is high. The price difference between domestic and foreign markets is oscillating at a high level [1]. - Supply: The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and the inventory split between domestic and foreign markets is gradually recovering. There is a risk of the outer market's short - squeeze ending and prices falling [1]. - Demand: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. The consumption of galvanized pipes is expected to be strong in 2026, and the demand increase is not overly pessimistic [1]. - Investment Strategy: Supported by the tight supply of mines, Shanghai zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound and is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark after breaking through the annual line [1]. Lead - Market Situation: Last week, the expected production reduction by smelters and increased downstream buying at low prices supported the price rebound. The spot import window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market [1]. - Supply: LME lead inventory is still high, and the supply of lead concentrates is in short supply. The supply of lead ingots in the market is tight, and social inventory has decreased [1]. - Demand: The demand from the lead - acid battery industry is mixed, with an insufficient increase in demand [1]. - Investment Strategy: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton, but there may be short - term price increases due to capital movements [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Situation: Shanghai nickel rebounded and consolidated at a high level, and Shanghai stainless steel also rebounded. The trading volume was low, and the market sentiment was cautious [1]. - Supply: The inventory of pure nickel increased, the inventory of nickel iron decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel increased. The support from rising prices has weakened [1]. - Demand: The downstream demand confidence is insufficient, and the成交 may become weak again [1]. - Investment Strategy: It is more reasonable to short at high levels [1]. Tin - Market Situation: Funds pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and Shanghai tin reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The price fluctuation increased [1]. - Supply: Indonesian tin exports in November may ensure the export volume at the end of the year. The situation in the Congo affects the supply of mines. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December [1]. - Demand: The traditional demand areas lack highlights, and the demand for high - end semiconductor products is the main bright spot. The social inventory of tin increased, and the LME 0 - 3 month spot premium decreased [1]. - Investment Strategy: Pay attention to the high - level risks in 2026, especially after the Spring Festival. Consider a long - term hedging strategy and focus on the far - month out - of - the - money put option strategy [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Situation: The lithium carbonate futures adjusted last week, and the short - selling was active. The market divergence decreased, and short - term speculation declined [1]. - Supply: The spot price of lithium carbonate slightly corrected. After the price decline, the willingness of miners to hold prices is strong, and the shipping enthusiasm is not high [1]. - Demand: The downstream production sentiment is positive, and the procurement willingness is strong [1]. - Investment Strategy: The market has a large divergence, and the fundamentals are generally strong, with short - sellers being relatively pressured [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market Situation: The main contract of industrial silicon showed a weak downward trend. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang decreased [1]. - Supply: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to decline slightly. The environmental protection inspection and safety supervision in Xinjiang may affect production [1]. - Demand: The inventory of industrial silicon increased. The inventory depletion at the end of the year is still under pressure [1]. - Investment Strategy: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. If the local factory's actual production reduction is limited, the price may further decline [1]. Polysilicon - Market Situation: The main contract of polysilicon reached a high point due to the expectation of delivery. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress the bullish sentiment [1]. - Supply: The production in November was lower than expected, and the production in December is expected to decline slightly. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises are reducing production [1]. - Demand: The downstream component production reduction has increased, and the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased [1]. - Investment Strategy: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may remain firm after a short - term decline if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected [1].