蛋白数据日报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term focus on the expected difference in the USDA report. Brazil's sowing progress has reached 90%, and there is no obvious driver for weather speculation. The premium is expected to face pressure later, and the 105 is expected to fluctuate weakly. [9][10] - In the short - term, the market should pay attention to the expected difference in the USDA report. With Brazil's sowing progress at 90%, there is no obvious weather - related speculative driver, and the premium is expected to face downward pressure later. [10] Summary by Related Catalog Basis and Spread Data - On December 9, 43% soybean meal spot basis: in Tianjin it was 52, in Rizhao 12, in Zhangjiagang 32, in Dongguan 9, in Zhanjiang 12, and in Fangcheng - 8. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 53. M1 - 5 was 245 with a decrease of 7, and RM1 - 5 was 41 with a decrease of 12. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 650 with an increase of 15. [6][7] Supply Situation - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September. [9] - According to CONAB data, the predicted output of Brazil's new crop in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%, compared with 86% last week, 94.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 89.8%. [9] - As of November 26, the sowing progress of soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season reached 36%, higher than 24.6% a week ago, but 9% behind the same period last year and 1% behind the five - year average. [10] - Precipitation in Brazilian production areas is expected to improve in the next two weeks, and the dry weather in Argentina is conducive to sowing. From December to January, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are expected to decline seasonally. There is uncertainty about the domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year, and attention should be paid to the reserve release. [10] Demand Situation - The high inventory of livestock and poultry products and the slow de - stocking of production capacity support feed demand. However, the current pig farming is in a loss, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply. [10] - Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream transactions and good提货 performance recently. [10] Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels. The de - stocking of soybean meal inventory is slow, and the pressure on spot supply is still high. It is expected to accelerate de - stocking from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased this week. [10]