2025年12月10日集运日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The bullish sentiment is strong. Under the long - short game, the market is oscillating strongly. The spot price has slightly decreased, and the main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Index - On December 8, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1,509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period [2] - On December 5, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1,024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period [2] - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1,397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1,400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route price was 1,550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period [2] - On December 5, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1,121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1,449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [2] 3.2 PMI and Investor Confidence Index - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global service industry PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3] 3.3 Market and Contract Information - On December 9, the main contract 2602 closed at 1,619.8, up 1.17%, with a trading volume of 19,000 lots and an open interest of 30,700 lots, a decrease of 753 lots from the previous day [3] - The trading limits of contracts from 2508 to 2606 were adjusted to 18%; the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%; the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 was 100 lots [4] 3.4 Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract rebounds after a pullback, and the fluctuation of far - month contracts slows down. Risk - takers are recommended to try a light position in the main contract. When the market dips slightly, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losing positions, and stop - loss should be set [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high and wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback before judging the subsequent direction [4]