中国成品油周报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side of domestic refineries has limited start - stop scales, with most devices operating stably. Regional production shows differentiation, with significant diesel increments in Shandong but a slight decrease in gasoline and a slight increase in diesel for the national independent refineries. The gasoline market enters a new replenishment cycle with strong summer demand, leading to a tight - balance situation. The diesel market is pressured by weak demand and low replenishment motivation. In terms of inventory, Shandong's gasoline refinery inventory is expected to decline, while diesel inventory pressure will increase. Next week, there is still downward pressure on the wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel, but the decline in gasoline prices may narrow, and diesel will continue to explore the bottom. Retail profits of gasoline and diesel are expected to rise slightly [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis 3.1.1 Market Overview - On the supply side, major refineries have stable operations with no new start - stop devices. Shandong independent refineries' operation rate continues to rise. Major refineries' gasoline prices stop falling and diesel prices are stable, while independent refineries' gasoline and diesel production both decline. The diesel - to - gasoline ratio drops by 0.01 to 1.31. On the demand side, gasoline demand improves with high - volume ship orders and a sales - to - production ratio over 100%. Diesel demand is weak with low ship and vehicle order volumes. In terms of inventory, commercial inventories of gasoline and diesel both increase. Gasoline inventory is 1101 million tons, up 12 million tons (1.1%) week - on - week; diesel inventory is 1384 million tons, up 4 million tons (0.3%) week - on - week. Independent refineries' gasoline and diesel inventories slightly decrease. Social gasoline inventory increases and diesel inventory decreases [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Supply: Domestic refineries will generally maintain stable operations with limited start - stop scales. Regional production will vary, with Shandong seeing a significant increase in diesel output, while the overall independent refinery production shows a slight decrease in gasoline and a slight increase in diesel. Demand: The gasoline market will enter a new replenishment cycle, with strong summer demand and concentrated delivery of previous orders, resulting in a supply - short situation. Diesel demand will remain weak due to low rigid demand and limited replenishment motivation, leading to price pressure and an imbalance between production and sales. Inventory: Shandong's gasoline refinery inventory is expected to decline due to order delivery and strong demand, while diesel inventory pressure will increase due to rising production and low consumption. Price: Next week, there will still be downward pressure on gasoline and diesel wholesale prices, but the decline in gasoline prices may slow down due to the peak season, and diesel prices will continue to fall. Retail profits of gasoline and diesel are expected to rise slightly [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The report provides detailed price data for gasoline and diesel in different regions of China, including national, Shandong independent refineries, and various regional markets. It shows price changes over different time intervals (year - on - year, week - on - week, month - on - month, and day - on - day) [11]. 3.2.2 Profit - Refinery profits: Major refineries' refining profit is 520 yuan/ton, independent refineries' is 179 yuan/ton, and Shandong independent refineries' is 314 yuan/ton. Gasoline profit is 603 yuan/ton, and diesel profit is 428 yuan/ton. There are also corresponding profit changes over different time periods [13]. 3.2.3 Supply - 开工率: The overall refinery operating rate in China is 71.6%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points. Major refineries' operating rate remains stable, while independent refineries' drops by 1.4 percentage points. Shandong independent refineries' operating rate is 48.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points [27]. - 检修计划: As of July 11, 2025, the total refinery maintenance capacity in China is 69 million tons/year, a decrease of 2.5 million tons compared to the previous week [34]. - 产量: Major refineries' gasoline and diesel production remains stable, while independent refineries' gasoline and diesel production both decline. Shandong independent refineries' gasoline production is 484,000 tons, a 1.1% increase, and diesel production is 931,000 tons, a 2.2% increase [35][39]. 3.2.4 Sales - Gasoline sales of independent refineries and Shandong independent refineries both increase, and the sales - to - production ratio also rises. Diesel sales of independent refineries remain stable, and Shandong independent refineries' sales increase slightly. The diesel sales - to - production ratio also shows a slight increase [43]. 3.2.5 Demand - The report uses various indicators such as consumption index, flight schedules, PMI, and congestion index to analyze gasoline and diesel demand. However, specific demand trends need to be further analyzed based on these indicators [58][60][62]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Commercial inventories of gasoline and diesel both increase. Gasoline inventory is 11.01 million tons, a 1.1% increase, and diesel inventory is 13.84 million tons, a 0.3% increase. Independent refineries' gasoline and diesel inventories slightly decrease. Social gasoline inventory increases and diesel inventory decreases. Shandong's gasoline refinery inventory is expected to decline next week, while diesel inventory is expected to increase [71][74].