股指期货早报2025.12.10：A股震荡行情整固等待机会-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are digesting the Fed's hawkish rate - cut expectations, which have put some pressure on US Treasuries and US stocks. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. [2][4] - Although the domestic A - shares are supported by the positive news of the entry of medium - and long - term funds such as insurance funds, they still face the year - end settlement effect in the short term, with limited capital inflows. And due to the weakness of the Hong Kong stock market, the performance of A - shares is limited. [4] - The A - share market has filled the upper gap on the 21st. Given the signs of liquidity shortage, the stock index may retrace to around the 20 - week moving average of 3847 in the short term, and the market is in a consolidating phase to wait for opportunities. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Important News - Trump mentioned the possibility of reducing tariffs on some over - priced goods and that an immediate rate cut would be a "litmus test" for choosing a new Fed chairman. He also started the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman position this week, with Hassett leading. There was also talk about the possibility of Hassett having a shortened term. [6] - Hassett believes the Fed has sufficient room for significant rate cuts and will make interest - rate decisions based on his judgment. [7] - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upside risk of inflation, and the market expects the rate - cut cycle may have ended. [7] - Zelensky refused to "cede territory", will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th, and for the first time showed willingness to hold elections. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision. [7] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with the heads of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development respectively. [7] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to issues such as delays in China's rare - earth exports to Japan and the US approval of the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. [8][9] - Moore Threads is about to release a new generation of GPU architecture. [10] - A long - awaited polysilicon production - capacity integration and acquisition platform in the industry has been officially established. [10] 2. Futures Market Tracking - Futures Market Performance: All major stock - index futures contracts showed declines. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures contracts IF2512, IF2601, IF2603, and IF2606 fell by 0.65%, 0.64%, 0.70%, and 0.67% respectively. [12] - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index futures decreased by 21,031 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,493 lots. [13] 3. Spot Market Tracking - Spot Market Performance: The overall market showed a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.61%. The trading volume of the market decreased, and most stocks fell. [3][35] - Industry Performance: Communication, electronics, commerce and retail, and military industry sectors rose, while non - ferrous metals, steel, real estate, coal, and construction decoration sectors led the decline. [3] - Influence of Market Styles on Indexes: Different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) had different impacts on major indexes such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. For example, the cyclical style had a negative daily contribution to the SSE 50 index, while the growth style had a positive daily contribution. [36][37] - Valuation and Related Indicators: The report presented the current valuations, historical quantiles, trading volumes, and turnovers of major indexes and industries, providing a reference for market evaluation. [39][43] 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report presented the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest - rate levels, which are important indicators for observing market liquidity. [51]