碳酸锂高位运行修复基差，谁会是下一轮点火契机

Group 1: Market Data Changes in Lithium Carbonate Futures - On December 9, the price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract slightly declined to 92,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,040 yuan or 2.15% from the previous day. The basis strengthened from -2,240 yuan/ton to -500 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was relatively stronger than the futures [1][57]. - The trading volume of the main contract shrank to 512,215 lots, a decrease of 87,152 lots or 14.54%. The open interest of the main contract decreased to 575,421 lots, a reduction of 17,708 lots or 2.99%, suggesting a decline in market activity [1][57]. Group 2: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis in the Industrial Chain - On the supply side, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 8,930 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively on December 9. The production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 75.34% on December 5. With new production lines gradually coming into operation, the domestic lithium carbonate output in December is expected to increase by about 3% month-on-month [2][59]. - In terms of demand, the demand for new energy vehicles was strong. In November, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 7% year-on-year, and the wholesale volume increased by 20% year-on-year (data on December 3). The production schedules of battery cells and cathode materials remained at a high level but decreased slightly month-on-month. The price of power-type ternary materials slightly rose to 144,700 yuan/ton on December 9. Downstream buyers were cautious and waiting for the annual long-term contract negotiations [2][59]. - Regarding inventory and warrants, the lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline from 115,968 tons on November 28 to 113,602 tons on December 5, a decrease of 2,366 tons or 2.04%. The destocking trend is expected to continue in December, but the pace will slow down [2][59]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to remain in a low-level oscillating pattern. The release of new production capacity on the supply side and the stable raw material prices at the cost end will increase the market supply pressure. Although the demand side is supported by the sales of new energy vehicles, the cautious purchasing intention of downstream buyers and the ongoing annual long-term contract negotiations will limit the upward space of prices. The inventory destocking provides some support, but the slowdown in the destocking speed means insufficient upward momentum for prices. Overall, the supply-demand fundamentals are relatively loose, and the short-term price may continue to fluctuate within a range [3][60].