纯苯、苯乙烯日报：纯苯现实承压未消，苯乙烯库存偏高-20251210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market will maintain a range-bound oscillation dominated by weak reality in the short term, with the price range between 5300 - 5700. The overseas gasoline blending logic has faded, and there is significant pressure on inventory due to concentrated arrivals in December. There is an expectation of supply tightening in the far - month, and the demand is generally weak, but there will be marginal increases in demand from January [2]. - The styrene market remains in a weak equilibrium pattern of high inventory and low demand. The overall inventory pressure persists, and the supply and demand structure generally maintains a weak balance. The price center may still be dominated by weak oscillations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - Price: On December 9, the styrene main contract closed down 1.39% at 6576 yuan/ton, with a basis of 204 (+73 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.65% at 5355 yuan/ton [2]. - Cost: On December 9, Brent crude oil closed at $58.9 per barrel (-$1.2 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $62.5 per barrel (-$1.3 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5355 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [2]. - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 16.1 million tons (-0.3 million tons), a 7.5% decrease compared to the previous period, still higher than in previous years. Pure benzene port inventory was 22.4 million tons (+6.0 million tons), a 36.6% increase compared to the previous period [2]. - Supply: Styrene production and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 34.2 million tons (+0.7 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [2]. - Demand: The overall demand of the downstream 3S sector has recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 56.4% (+1.6%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 68.3% (-2.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 59.0% (+1.4%) [2]. 2. Industry News - Canada provided an additional CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine [8]. - The ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000 in November, falling short of market expectations [10]. - Fitch lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 - 2027, reflecting an oversupply in the market [10]. - Venezuela's daily oil exports exceeded 900,000 barrels in November despite US pressure [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that there are signs of weakness in some areas of the US economy and that interest rate cuts are needed [10]. - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 574,000 barrels in the week ending November 28, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [10]. 3. Industry Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract decreased by 1.39% to 6576 yuan/ton; spot price increased by 0.71% to 6770 yuan/ton; basis increased by 55.73% to 204 yuan/ton [5]. - Pure benzene futures main contract decreased by 1.22% to 5492 yuan/ton; East China spot price decreased by 0.65% to 5355 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the US FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [5]. - The difference between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 7.53%, and the difference between East China and Shandong pure benzene decreased by 212.50% [5]. - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.00% to $58.9 per barrel, WTI crude oil decreased by 1.98% to $62.5 per barrel, and naphtha price remained unchanged [5]. (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - China's styrene production increased by 2.32% to 34.2 million tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 million tons [6]. - Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 million tons, and domestic factory inventory decreased by 7.19% to 17.6 million tons [6]. - National pure benzene port inventory increased by 36.59% to 22.4 million tons [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - The capacity utilization rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56% to 68.9%, and that of caprolactam decreased by 7.53% to 79.2% [7]. - The capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 0.57% to 81.7%, and that of aniline remained unchanged at 77.2% [7]. - Among styrene downstream, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.51% to 56.4%, the VBS capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.90% to 68.3%, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.10% to 59.0% [7].