瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Some farmers are reluctant to sell and support prices, and demand is increasing, supporting the narrow - range adjustment of spot prices. However, the oversupply situation continues, and the upside space of prices is still limited. The main 2603 contract of live pigs closed down 1.01%, giving back some of the gains of the previous two trading days, and the rebound was a bit weak, mainly in a range - bound pattern [2] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 149,428 lots, an increase of 602 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 373 lots, an increase of 265 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 44,051 lots, an increase of 102 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Prices - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 11,300 yuan/ton with no change; in Siping, Jilin it was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong it was 12,400 yuan/ton with no change. The main live - pig basis was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live - pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 12.33 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,040 yuan/ton with no change. The spot price of corn was 2,357.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig - feed cost index was 896.72, an increase of 0.4. The monthly output of feed was 29.57 million tons, a decrease of 1.717 million tons. The price of binary breeding sows was 1,437 yuan/head, a decrease of 12 yuan. The breeding profit from purchasing piglets was - 259.39 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.57 yuan; the profit from self - breeding and self - raising was - 167.69 yuan/head, a decrease of 19.7 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.9 yuan/kg with no change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million heads, an increase of 2.5 million heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 519.9 billion yuan, an increase of 69.04 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, on December 10, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 160,989 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Currently, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms has recovered, and the slaughter of large pigs by散户 has increased. However, as prices fall, the reluctance to sell among some farmers is gradually rising. On the demand side, winter is the peak season for pork consumption. The activities of curing and making sausages in southwest and other regions continue to increase, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has continuously rebounded, and consumption support has strengthened [2]