11月金融数据前瞻（2025.11.10-2025.12.09）：新增信贷和社融或延续同比少增

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the credit demand remains weak, with November's new credit expected to decrease by approximately 250 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling around 330 billion yuan [3][12] - The social financing scale for November is projected to be about 2.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 200 billion yuan [25][30] - The report suggests that the upcoming months will see a significant amount of fixed-term deposits maturing, which may lead to a further decline in risk-free interest rates for residents [5][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index is at 4215.44, with a 52-week high of 4670.31 and a low of 3730.31 [1] Credit Market Analysis - New credit in November is expected to be around 330 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of about 250 billion yuan [12][19] - The demand for corporate loans is slightly improving, but overall credit demand remains low, particularly for residential loans due to weak consumer confidence [4][21] - The PMI for November shows slight improvement but remains below the threshold, indicating ongoing pressure in the corporate sector [12][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on banks with significant maturing deposits and potential for margin improvement, such as Chongqing Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Bank of Communications [5][30] - It also suggests paying attention to city commercial banks that will benefit from improvements in fixed asset investments, including Jiangsu Bank, Qilu Bank, and Qingdao Bank [5][30]