Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-10 08:42Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The production of primary lead remains stable overall, but the shortage of raw material supply restricts further significant production growth. The supply of lead concentrate remains tight. The production of recycled lead shows signs of recovery, but the growth is less than expected. The supply of waste batteries is tight, which restricts the release of recycled lead production capacity. If environmental control remains stable and waste battery supply stays at the current level, recycled lead production is expected to maintain a stable growth trend. On the demand side, orders in the leading energy storage battery sector are relatively stable, supporting the demand for lead. However, due to the "trade - in" policy, the traditional replacement market is dull. Downstream battery enterprises face inventory pressure and are cautious in purchasing high - priced lead sources. Overall, the price of Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation today [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,115 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the 3 - month lead quotation on LME is 1,976.5 US dollars/ton, down 22 US dollars. The spread between the 01 - 02 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 79,017 lots, down 1,395 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 238 lots, an increase of 1,158 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 0 tons, unchanged. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 34,735 tons, down 3,064 tons; the LME lead inventory is 236,925 tons, down 2,900 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,975 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,150 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 49.76 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.81 US dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,771 yuan, an increase of 166 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,930 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The monthly supply - demand balance of lead by WBMS is 22,000 tons, an increase of 45,500 tons. The monthly capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 43.14%, an increase of 7.58%. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 68.49%, a decrease of 13.32%. The weekly output of primary lead is 38,600 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 100 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The monthly supply - demand balance of lead by ILZSG is - 2,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons. The monthly global lead ore production by ILZSG is 383,300 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 98,300 tons, a decrease of 52,300 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 3,812.24 tons, an increase of 2,304.32 tons. The average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,098.42 tons, an increase of 612.28 tons. The average daily price of waste batteries is 9,851.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.42 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,661,000, a decrease of 350,000. The average daily price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,400 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The daily Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,934.16 points, down 13.49 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000. The monthly new energy vehicle production is 1.71 million vehicles, an increase of 130,000 [3]. Industry News - Trump may reduce tariffs on some over - priced goods and considers an immediate interest - rate cut as the "touchstone" for choosing the new Fed chairman. Trump starts the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, with Hassett leading. Hassett believes the Fed has enough room for a significant interest - rate cut. The US job openings in October reached the highest level in five months, but recruitment remains sluggish. The Thailand - Cambodia conflict continues. Zelensky refuses to "cede territory" and will submit an updated peace proposal to the US on the 10th. Ukraine is consulting with the US and Europe on three key documents, and the US is pressuring Zelensky to make a quick decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps the interest rate at 3.6% as expected, emphasizing the upward risk of inflation, and the market expects the interest - rate cut cycle may end [3].