港股市场下跌点评

Market Overview - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is facing significant downward pressure due to the hawkish statements from the anticipated next Federal Reserve Chair, Hassett, and the upcoming peak of lock-up stock releases in December, which is expected to exacerbate liquidity issues [1][12] - The potential rebound points are highlighted for mid to late December and early January, with technical analysis suggesting that the Hang Seng Technology Index has sufficient downward momentum after breaking below the 120-day moving average [1][12] Reasons for Recent Decline - The sharp decline in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to dissatisfaction from Trump regarding Powell's interest rate comments, leading to a shift in market expectations towards a dovish stance for the next Fed Chair, Hassett, who emphasized a cautious approach to rate adjustments [2][13] - The Hong Kong market is particularly sensitive to external factors, as it combines negative influences from both domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity, with a significant lock-up stock release pressure of HKD 126 billion in December [3][17] Potential Rebound Timing - Key dates for potential market recovery include mid to late December, where fiscal policy announcements and the Bank of Japan's interest rate comments could provide positive signals [4][22] - Early January is also noted as a critical time as the peak of stock lock-up releases concludes, coinciding with the release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which could favor liquidity if the interest rate path appears dovish [4][23] - The report emphasizes that the Hang Seng Technology Index is currently positioned between the 120-day and 250-day moving averages, indicating a possible rebound if it approaches the 250-day support line [4][23]