供应宽松预期不改，连粕低位区间震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - From January to November 2025, the soybean meal market was influenced by factors such as South American production expectations, Sino-US trade relations, US soybean growing - season weather, Sino - Canadian trade uncertainties, and sufficient Brazilian soybean arrivals. Under the pressure of a generally loose supply pattern, the futures price continued to fluctuate in a low - level range [3]. - The December USDA report shows that the US soybean yield per unit and export volume remain unchanged, and there is limited room for adjustment in US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. China is expected to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by the end of February 2026, with 5.5 - 6 million tons already purchased, and the current purchase pace is acceptable. Market institutions expect the US soybean planting area to increase in 2026 [3]. - Brazil has completed soybean sowing, and Argentina's sowing progress is about 50%. The current South American weather is favorable, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The combined soybean output of the two countries is expected to increase by 1 million tons year - on - year, and the loose supply pattern continues [3]. - From January to October 2025, the feed output was 275.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. Domestic feed demand will slow down next year as breeding enterprises are in the process of reducing production capacity. Global soybean crushing demand has a slight increase, mainly due to the expansion of US production capacity and the development of biodiesel policies, and a small increase in Brazilian biodiesel [3]. - Assuming continued bumper harvests in South American producing areas, an increase in the US soybean planting area, and maintaining the trend yield per unit, domestic soybean meal demand will slow down slightly due to the reduction of production capacity in the breeding sector. In the context of a loose supply pattern, the upside and downside spaces are both limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the low - level range of 2500 - 3300 yuan/ton [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - From January to the Spring Festival in 2024, the continuous soybean meal contract rebounded after an oversell due to factors such as the significant downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit in the January USDA report, disruptions in the Argentine producing area, slow initial harvesting progress in Brazil, and the short - term emotional support from tariff policy expectations. From February to March 2025, the price fluctuated widely. The acceleration of the Brazilian harvest, improved crop forecasts in Argentina, and the cooling of tariff policy speculation weakened the upward momentum, while the increasing domestic soybean arrivals and the loosening supply of soybean meal suppressed the price. From April to May, the price first rose sharply and then fell. The sharp increase in US tariffs, the decline in the US soybean planting area, and the slowdown of the soybean clearance rhythm supported the price, but the subsequent large - scale arrival of Brazilian soybeans led to a continuous decline. From June to July, the price first rose and then fell due to weather - related factors and supply expectations. In August, the price rose due to the significant downward adjustment of the US soybean planting area. From late August to mid - October, the price weakened due to sufficient supply from Brazilian soybeans. From late October to the present, the price first rose due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and then fell due to factors such as the slow progress of US soybean exports and the good weather in South American producing areas [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report shows that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 422.54 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 790,000 tons; the global soybean crushing demand is 365.24 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 260,000 tons; the global soybean ending inventory is 122.37 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons compared with the November estimate. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.01%, slightly tightened compared with the previous year. The overall supply - demand pattern remains loose [10]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The December USDA report made no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet, with a neutral impact. In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area remains at 81.1 million acres, the yield per unit at 53 bushels per acre, the export demand at 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory at 290 million bushels, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 6.74%. The total planting area of US soybeans, corn, and wheat has been relatively stable in recent years. In 2025, the US soybean planting area was the lowest in the past five years. Market institutions expect the US soybean planting area to increase to 84 million acres in 2026 [16]. 2.3 US Soybean Crushing Demand - According to NOPA data, the US soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 227.647 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. The USDA's estimated growth target for crushing demand in the 2025/26 season is 4.5%. As of the end of October 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.305 billion pounds [21]. 2.4 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending October 30, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season were 1.248 million tons. The cumulative export sales volume was 17.2 million tons, with a sales progress of 38.6%, lower than 55.5% in the same period last year. After the Sino - US high - level meeting in late October, China restarted the purchase of US soybeans. As of early December, China's purchase volume is estimated to be between 5.5 and 6 million tons, and the US expects China to purchase 12 million tons by the end of February 2026. The December USDA report made no adjustments to export demand, and the subsequent adjustment space is limited [25]. 2.5 Brazilian Soybean Situation - The November USDA report shows that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season remains at 175 million tons, the export demand at 112.5 million tons (an increase of 9.35 million tons compared with the previous year), and the crushing demand at 59 million tons (an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year). The ending inventory is 36.36 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 20.68%. The export demand has been significantly increased, and China's import structure will further increase the weight of Brazilian soybeans. Brazil's biodiesel policy will lead to a small increase in soybean crushing demand in the future. In 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume in October was 6.73 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October was 100.64 million tons. The export volume to China in October was 6.17 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to October was 78.93 million tons. As of the week ending November 29, 2025, the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was 86%, and the future weather is favorable for a bumper harvest [27][30][33]. 2.6 Argentine Soybean Situation - The December USDA report shows that the Argentine soybean output in the 2025/26 season remains at 48.5 million tons, the import at 7.7 million tons, the export demand at 8.25 million tons, the crushing demand at 41 million tons, and the ending inventory at 22.84 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 40.46%. Due to the reduction of the sowing area, the output is estimated to be 48.5 million tons. The export demand has increased this year, leading to a tightening of the domestic soybean supply and a decline in the crushing demand. The inventory structure is relatively stable. As of the previous week, the soybean sowing progress was 44.7%. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing area is expected to be 25 - 30mm, which is conducive to sowing [34][46]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - According to customs data, China's soybean import volume in October 2025 was 9.48 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 95.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73 million tons. As of the week ending December 2, the purchase progress for December, January, and February shipments is 97%, 56%, and 41% respectively. The 2025/26 purchase volume of US soybeans is about 4 million tons. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of rapeseed from January to October was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed meal in October was 221,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to October was 2.33 million tons. The import structure has changed, with India and Russia as alternative suppliers. The start of the auction of imported soybean reserves can supplement the market supply [47][49]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventories - As of the week ending November 28, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.2032 million tons, the unfulfilled contracts were 3.881 million tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 9.576 million tons. As of the week ending December 5, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 140,280 tons, the daily average提货量 was 184,300 tons, the major oil mill crushing volume was 2.0558 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.49 days. With the decrease in imports and the increase in pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory of oil mills will be depleted faster, supporting the near - term contracts [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. From January to October, the feed output was 275.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. However, as breeding enterprises are in the process of reducing production capacity, domestic feed demand will slow down next year [55][56]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - From January to November 2025, the soybean meal market fluctuated in a low - level range under the influence of various factors and the pressure of a loose supply pattern. The December USDA report shows limited adjustment space for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The South American weather is favorable, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is strengthened. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is expected to increase by 1 million tons year - on - year. The global soybean crushing demand has a slight increase, while domestic feed demand will slow down next year. In the context of a loose supply pattern, the soybean meal price is expected to fluctuate in the low - level range of 2500 - 3300 yuan/ton [68][69].