金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251210

Report Information - Report Title: Jinxin Futures PTA Ethylene Glycol Daily [1] - Report Date: December 10, 2025 [1] PTA Analysis Market Performance - On December 10, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 fell 0.86%, and the basis strengthened to -19 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China was 4612 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3] - The cost of Brent crude oil dropped to around $62, and the OPEC+ meeting maintained the decision to suspend production increases in Q1 2026 [3] - The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.92 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.14 days [3] Main Force Movements - The short main force reduced positions [3] Trend Expectation - The previously shut-down PTA production capacity will gradually restart, and the inventory pattern will gradually shift to accumulation [3] - The downstream polyester start-up rate decreased slightly from a high level, and terminal demand is expected to weaken further [3] - The PTA processing fee has fallen back to around 150 yuan. In the short term, the PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate following the cost side [3] MEG Analysis Market Performance - On December 10, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 rose 0.52%, and the basis strengthened to -13 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3668 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4] - The prices of crude oil and coal on the cost side both declined, and the weekly inventory at East China MEG ports totaled 71.9 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.1 tons [4] Main Force Movements - The long main force reduced positions [4] Trend Expectation - Ethylene glycol inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has decreased, and the expectation has not been reversed [4] - Recently, some domestic plants have shut down for maintenance, temporarily alleviating the pressure on the ethylene glycol supply side, but the amount of maintenance at low absolute prices is lower than expected [4] - It is expected that there will be new production capacity put into operation in the future, and the ethylene glycol price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom under the expectation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [4]