山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 5.44%, platinum's main contract closed up 1.08%, and palladium's main contract closed up 1.08% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war - related避险 has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US job market is weakening, inflation is moderate, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects an 80%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak and silver strong, platinum will be strong and palladium weak. In the medium - term, they will fluctuate at high levels, and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market Performance - Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Comex gold's main contract closed at $4236.60 per ounce, up 0.40% from the previous day, and London gold closed at $4198.00 per ounce, up 0.23% from the previous day [1][2] - The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) was 956.40 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day [2] Core Logic - Short - term: Trade - war - related避险 has subsided, geopolitical risks remain, US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and interest - rate - cut expectations remain [1] - 避险 attribute: There are discussions about ending the Ukraine war, and there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - Monetary attribute: The possibility of Fed rate cuts has increased, the US economic activity has changed little, and the market is waiting for more economic data [1] - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry, and palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] Silver Market Performance - Comex silver's main contract closed at $61.16 per ounce, up 4.55% from the previous day, and London silver closed at $58.63 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day [8] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) was 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, up 5.63% from the previous day [8] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attribute - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.90%, down 0.25% from the previous value [10] - The Fed's total assets were $65861.85 billion, down 0.00% from the previous value [10] - M2 (year - on - year): 4.65%, up 0.22% from the previous value; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.51, up 0.80% from the previous day, up 2.03% from the previous week [10] - US Treasury spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [12] 避险 Attribute - Geopolitical risk index: 123.60, up 14.93% from the previous day, down 27.38% from the previous week; VIX index: 16.93, up 1.62% from the previous day, up 2.05% from the previous week [13] Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index: 299.63, down 0.61% from the previous day, down 0.87% from the previous week; offshore RMB: 7.0685, up 0.10% from the previous week [13] Fed's Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate changes from December 10, 2025, to October 27, 2027, are presented [14]