Guoxin Securities·2025-12-10 09:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Tin is an essential minor metal with increasing resource scarcity. As of the end of 2024, global tin reserves are estimated at 4.2 million tons, with a production of 300,000 tons. The reserve-to-production ratio has decreased from around 20 years in 2010 to 14 years in 2024, indicating a low level of reserves compared to production [2][21] - Global tin supply is expected to decline significantly by 2025 due to decreasing ore grades and various unpredictable factors affecting major production areas. China, the largest producer, has seen a decline in domestic production since 2015 due to lower ore grades and stricter environmental regulations [2][21] - Demand for tin is projected to remain stable or increase, driven by the semiconductor industry and other applications. The global demand for tin is expected to reach 386,000 tons in 2025, with a steady growth forecast through 2027 [2][21] - A significant shortage of refined tin is anticipated in 2025, with a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 16,000 tons. This gap may narrow in subsequent years as production resumes in Myanmar and new projects come online [2][21] - Key companies in the industry include Xiyang Co., Xingye Yinxin, and Huaxi Nonferrous [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Tin is characterized by its low melting point and good conductivity, making it irreplaceable in solder applications. The global distribution of tin reserves is concentrated in a few countries, with China holding the largest share [2][21] Supply Dynamics - The global tin supply has been stable around 300,000 tons in recent years, but significant declines are expected due to various factors affecting major production areas, including environmental regulations and resource depletion [2][21] Demand Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is a major driver of tin demand, with a strong correlation to electronic product production. The demand for tin in solder applications is expected to grow, supported by a recovery in semiconductor sales [2][21] Price Trends - Tin prices have seen significant fluctuations, with a notable increase of 46% since early 2024. The average price for tin in 2024 is projected to be 248,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.92% [12][21] Regional Insights - China's tin production has been on a downward trend, with production expected to be 69,000 tons in 2024, down from previous highs. Despite this, China remains the largest producer and holder of tin reserves globally [34][21]