胶版印刷纸周报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The industrial chain shows stable spot prices and rigid demand transactions. The price adjustment on December 1st has not been implemented with actual orders. This week, the production of double - offset paper was 20.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons or 0.5% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 53.0%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. The inventory of double - offset paper production enterprises increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The offset paper market continues to have an oversupply situation, with high finished - product inventory still accumulating. The price increase has not been implemented, resulting in significant fundamental pressure and weakening market sentiment. However, considering the recent increase in raw material pulp prices, the cost of double - offset paper has some support, and the downside space is expected to be limited. Due to the large fundamental pressure and limited cost support, it is not recommended to short at low levels. If there is a rebound, the overall idea is to short on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. Summary by Directory 1.胶版印刷纸综述 1.1 胶版印刷纸综述——供需库 - In terms of supply, the weekly domestic production of offset printing paper in the week of December 5, 2025, was 20.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4 million tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.21%. The capacity utilization rate was 53.0%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period and 5.5% from the same period last year. The monthly import volume in December 2025 was 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.02 million tons from the previous month and 0.83 million tons from the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98%. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly next week, reaching about 21.0 million tons [6]. - In terms of demand, the weekly apparent demand was 20.0 million tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous period. The monthly export volume was 5.6 million tons, unchanged from the previous month but a decrease of 1.59 million tons from the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 14.17%. Domestic demand was 84.05 million tons, unchanged from the previous month but an increase of 4.73 million tons from the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 6.11%. The demand is expected to remain stable during the off - season [6]. - In terms of inventory, the enterprise inventory was 137.1 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 27.1 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory was 54.0 million tons, unchanged from the previous period but a decrease of 4.7 million tons from the same period last year. The total spot inventory was 191.1 million tons, an increase of 0.7 million tons from the previous period and 22.4 million tons from the same period last year. Due to the increase in production and stable demand, the inventory is expected to accumulate [6]. 1.2 胶版印刷纸综述——价格 - The ex - factory delivered prices of various brands such as Galaxy Ruyi, Huatai Mudan, etc., remained unchanged from the previous period but decreased compared to the same period last year. The market self - pick - up prices also showed a similar trend. The quoted price on December 1st to increase by 100 yuan/ton was not actually implemented. The offset paper market continues to have an oversupply situation, with high finished - product inventory still accumulating. The price increase has not been implemented, resulting in significant fundamental pressure and weakening market sentiment. However, considering the recent increase in raw material pulp prices, the cost of double - offset paper has some support, and the downside space is expected to be limited. The futures prices of OP2601 and OP2603 are expected to fluctuate or fluctuate strongly [8]. 1.3 胶版印刷纸综述——价差与基差 - The differences between ex - factory and self - pick - up prices of some brands remained stable or increased compared to the same period last year. The futures price difference between OP2601 and OP2603 is expected to remain stable. The basis of some brands is expected to weaken. Seasonally, January is a small peak season for spring teaching - aid textbook tenders, and March is the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [10]. 1.3 胶版印刷纸综述——成本与利润 - Raw material prices have increased, leading to an increase in the cost of double - offset paper. In the off - season, it is difficult for the finished - product price to rise, so the production profit is expected to shrink. The profit of self - used pulp decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton, and the profits of low - cost and high - cost production also decreased [12]. 2.胶版印刷纸平衡表解析 - The monthly balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory changes of double - offset paper from 2024 to 2025. In 2025, the cumulative import volume decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative production also decreased year - on - year. The cumulative total supply and demand both decreased year - on - year. The inventory showed an increasing trend in general, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [15]. 3.胶版印刷纸供需解析 3.1 供应——投产情况 - In 2025, a total of 140 million tons of cultural paper production capacity has been put into operation, and 225 million tons is expected to be put into operation, mostly in the third quarter, including the resumption of Chenming's production capacity. In 2026, 120 - 140 million tons of production capacity is planned to be put into operation [17]. 3.2 需求 - No detailed content provided in the given text 3.3 库存 - No detailed content provided in the given text 3.4 进出口 - No detailed content provided in the given text 4.胶版印刷纸成本利润 4.1 胶版印刷纸原料成本 - No detailed content provided in the given text 4.2 胶版印刷纸利润 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.胶版印刷纸价格、价差解析 5.1 胶版印刷纸现货报价 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.2 胶版印刷纸期现基差 - No detailed content provided in the given text 5.3 OP主力合约季节图及月间价差 - No detailed content provided in the given text