Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-10 09:41Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term industrial compound fertilizer has high operation rate and continuous demand. There are still some reserve gaps, and the urea factory inventory may still show a slight downward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 in the short term [2]. - The reserve demand has temporarily stopped to wait and see due to the too - fast increase in urea prices. The compound fertilizer operation rate has increased month - on - month, and the short - term compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to show a narrow increase. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand gradually increases [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1645 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 68 yuan/ton, up 0.644 yuan; the position volume is 142,791 lots, down 7,855 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 5,324; the exchange warehouse receipt is 11,228 sheets, down 249 sheets [2]. Spot Market - The prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1720 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and 1680 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively; the price in Shandong is 1700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The main contract basis is 55 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - FOB Baltic is 352.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 391.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons [2]. - The urea enterprise operation rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily urea output is 197,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operation rate is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the melamine operation rate is 61.66%, up 0.86% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, up 753.8 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,100 tons, up 600 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2342 billion tons, down 563,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.36% [2]. - As of December 4, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5%. There are expectations of continuous container collection for exports, but due to restrictions such as the flow of goods and factory inspections, the current container collection rhythm is still slow, and the arrival volume at most ports has not been concentrated [2]. - As of December 4, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3851 billion tons, down 319,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%; the capacity utilization rate is 81.83%, down 1.88% from the previous period, and the trend continues to decline [2]. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operation rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]