瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The supply is in a relatively large state, and demand has some resilience [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, light - position oscillatory trading is also advised, paying attention to rhythm and risks. Supply has an incremental expectation, and demand is transitioning from peak to off - season with some support from end - of - year impulses [2]. - For cast aluminum alloys, light - position oscillatory trading is suggested. Supply is restricted, and demand is in a slight decline with inventory accumulation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 21,935 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 130 yuan, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 185,806 lots, down 9,920 lots [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,477 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 51 yuan, down 14 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 278,854 lots, down 3,226 lots [2]. - LME aluminum's three - month quotation is 2,845.5 dollars/ton, down 41 dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 523,300 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,930 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 75 yuan, down 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 17,403 lots, up 84 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network A00 aluminum is 21,770 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of alumina spot in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots is 21,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 21,860 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 570 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 165 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 32.36 dollars/ton, down 0.22 dollars [2]. - The basis of alumina is 263 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production is 786.5 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 84.37%, down 0.92%; the utilization rate of alumina production capacity is 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 18 million tons, down 7 million tons; the import volume is 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is - 19.21 million tons, down 8.67 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 54.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export volume is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1 million tons; the start - up rate is 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - The production of aluminum products is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 57 million tons, up 7 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 million tons, unchanged; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy is 168.20 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 13.61%, down 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.72%, up 0.10% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.06%, down 0.0347%; the call - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.60, down 0.0950 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the retail industry should focus on high - quality development [2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut [2]. - China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, and the economic aggregate will reach a new level [2]. - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month - on - month and increased 0.7% year - on - year; the PPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 2.2% year - on - year [2].