瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost has decreased as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, although the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the decline in nickel ore grade, while the ferronickel production in Indonesia remains at a high level and the return volume to China is expected to increase [2] - The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved. Despite the end of the traditional peak demand season, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing, with the impact of previous export squeezing starting to show. The market's purchasing willingness is low, and the overall inquiry and transaction performance is average, resulting in a narrow increase in the national stainless - steel social inventory [2] - Technically, the position is stable while the price is rising, and the bearish sentiment has declined. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,600 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,555 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts is - 120 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,792 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 80 lots; the position of the main contract is 71,481 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,683 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 61,498 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 58 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 415 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 22,900 metal tons, with an increase of 1,200 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, with a decrease of 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, with a decrease of 180,200 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 119,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,200 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change [2] - The monthly production of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, with an increase of 37,300 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, with a decrease of 12,300 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, with an increase of 36.6239 million square meters [2] - The monthly production of excavators is 30,900 units, with a decrease of 700 units; the monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, with a decrease of 4,300 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 9,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2] 3.6行业消息 - The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, with an average weekly increase of 4,750 private - sector jobs, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses. The Fed's employment - related indicator, the JOLTS job openings in October, unexpectedly rose to a five - month high, but hiring decreased and layoffs reached a two - year high [2] - The Bank of Japan governor said that if the economic outlook is achieved, interest rates will be raised, and in special cases, the bond - buying scale will be increased. Japan is gradually approaching the sustainable inflation target, hinting that future interest rate hikes will be "more than once" [2] - Trump said that interest rate cuts are the touchstone for the new Fed chairman, and he will consider two candidates. He may reduce the prices of some commodities by adjusting tariffs. The media reported that Trump will conduct the final round of interviews for the Fed chairman this week, and Hassett is still the best candidate. Hassett said that the Fed has "sufficient room" for interest rate cuts, which means a cut of more than 25 basis points [2] 3.7重点关注 - There is no important news today [2]