Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-10 10:39Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sugar sources are diverse, the spot price is weakening, and the market will remain weak in the future. Attention should be paid to demand changes. The focus of the market has shifted to the pressure on prices brought by the increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere. The reduction of the sugarcane purchase price in Thailand has put pressure on the international raw sugar market. In the domestic market, although the import quota for this year is almost used up, the import cost continues to decrease, and domestic sugar producers are worried that low - priced processed sugar next year will seize the market share. There is competition in the market due to the accelerated sugar - cane pressing in Guangxi [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5328 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the main contract position is 241501 hands, a decrease of 18964 hands; the number of warehouse receipts is 396, an increase of 215; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 56723 hands, an increase of 1625 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1705, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4017 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan. The import estimated price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5087 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5151 yuan/ton, a decrease of 87 yuan. The spot prices in Yunnan Kunming, Guangxi Nanning, and Guangxi Liuzhou are 5340 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan), 5370 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), and 5460 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan) respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 593.35 million tons; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons, a decrease of 237.4 million tons; the total sugar exports from Brazil are 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 million tons. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, an increase of 20 million tons, and the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, an increase of 74 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, an increase of 34.39 million tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, a decrease of 495.5 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 10.01%, an increase of 1.39%; that of at - the - money put options is 10%, an increase of 1.38%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.1%, an increase of 0.01%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.02%, unchanged [2]. Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 195528 hands, an increase of 28109 hands from the previous week. The long position was 165775 hands, an increase of 1384 hands, and the short position was 361303 hands, an increase of 29493 hands. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the ICE fell 0.15 cents or 1.0% to settle at 14.67 cents per pound due to concerns about supply from major producing countries [2]. Sugar - Cane Pressing Situation - As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - pressing season, 56 sugar mills in Guangxi have started pressing, 11 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane pressing capacity of 42.5 million tons, 11.25 million tons less than the same period last year. 10 more sugar mills are expected to start pressing this week. 12 sugar mills in Yunnan have started pressing, 6 more than the same period last year [2].