Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-10 10:39Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the market has largely priced in a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut, and the recent rapid rise of silver prices may increase short - term correction risks. In the long - term, the US debt problem may enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and central bank gold purchases will provide strong support for gold prices. The suggested price ranges are: Shanghai Gold Main 2602 contract at 930 - 980 yuan/gram; Shanghai Silver Main 2602 contract at 13300 - 14500 yuan/kilogram; London Gold at 4100 - 4300 US dollars/ounce; London Silver at 58 - 62 US dollars/ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 956.400 yuan/gram, up 4.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 14373 yuan/kilogram, up 766 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 192,659.00 lots, down 1834 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8,972.00 lots, down 9632 lots [2]. - Volumes: The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 222,609.00 lots, down 6955 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 1,814,842.00 lots, up 505812 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 91299 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 741,845 kilograms, up 24057 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 950.91 yuan, up 3.78 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 14,276.00 yuan, up 646 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 5.49 yuan/gram, down 1.08 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 97.00 yuan/gram, down 120 yuan [2]. - ETF Holdings: The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1047.97 tons, down 1.14 tons; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,973.16 tons, up 84.62 tons [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The weekly non - commercial net position of gold was 202307.00 contracts, down 2357 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net position of silver was 33,221.00 contracts, down 3898 contracts [2]. - Supply: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 32,056.00 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - Demand: The quarterly total demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the annual total demand for silver was 35,716.00 tons, down 491 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - Indices: The US dollar index was 99.24, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.92%, up 0.01%; the VIX volatility index was 16.93, up 0.27; the CBOE gold volatility index was 20.35, up 0.77; the S&P 500/gold price ratio was 1.63, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 71.60, down 0.15 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Fed Expectations: The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points for the third time with internal differences, and may hint at a pause. The market has highly priced in this rate cut. Kevin Hassett believes there is more room for rate cuts, and Trump will use support for significant rate cuts as a criterion for choosing the new Fed chairman [2]. - US Economy: US private employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks to November 22, ending four - week job losses. US job openings in October were 7.67 million, far exceeding the expected 7.117 million [2]. - Japan's Central Bank: The Bank of Japan will continue to gradually adjust monetary easing until it achieves 2% inflation and the policy rate returns to the natural rate. It will increase bond purchases in "special cases" [2].