瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both supply and demand weakness. Domestically, the supply is tightening due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, but the demand is also weakening as the first shipment of Australian rapeseed may be crushed this month and the demand for aquaculture decreases with the temperature drop. Additionally, the domestic soybean auction news is negative for the domestic meal market, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures price has been fluctuating weakly recently, and attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US and whether the China - Canada trade policy can make a breakthrough [2] - The rapeseed oil market continues to digest the negative news of the higher - than - expected Canadian rapeseed production and the arrival of Australian rapeseed. Although the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing due to supply restrictions, the sufficient supply of soybean oil with a good substitution advantage keeps the rapeseed oil demand at a rigid level. As a result, the futures price of rapeseed oil continues to decline [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9443 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2329 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 633.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 19.4 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5508 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed oil is 290 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan; the 1 - 5 month spread of rapeseed meal is 69 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 90128 lots, down 18419 lots; that of rapeseed meal is 579248 lots, up 26385 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 19107 lots, down 4591 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 89134 lots, up 4358 lots [2] - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3490 sheets, down 231 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; that of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7708.91 yuan/ton, up 60.44 yuan; the spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio is 3.96, down 0.04; the basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 51 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. Canada's rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 0 tons, down 115300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 220600 tons, up 62900 tons [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0 tons, down 100 tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 449 yuan/ton, down 204 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume is 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume is 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 29.57 million tons, down 1.717 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4276 thousand tons, down 67.4 thousand tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 519.9 billion yuan, up 69.04 billion yuan [2] Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.94%, down 0.08%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.93%, down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 13.59%, down 0.79% [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 10.4%, down 0.49%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 11.71%, up 0.18%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 9.72%, down 1.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.96%, up 0.17% [2] Industry News - On December 9 (Tuesday), the ICE rapeseed futures rebounded, ending an eight - day losing streak. The January rapeseed futures contract closed 6.20 Canadian dollars higher at 619.90 Canadian dollars per ton, and the March contract rose 5.70 Canadian dollars to 631.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2] - US soybeans have entered the export season with sufficient supply in the short term, and the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's soybean purchases from the US, and the price of US soybeans has fallen from recent highs [2] - The MPOB report shows that the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market forecast of 2.66 million tons. The export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days is still declining, and the export is still weak, which drags down the price of Malaysian palm oil [2]