理财规模跟踪月报（2025年11月）：11月理财规模稳步增长-20251210

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the wealth - management scale grew steadily, reaching 34.0 trillion yuan at the end of November, an increase of 4.0 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and 0.35 trillion yuan from the end of the previous month. The growth in November 2025 was in line with the seasonal pattern. Despite the sharp rise in the stock market in Q3 2025, the incremental wealth - management scale in Q3 was 1.46 trillion yuan, higher than the same period from 2022 - 2024 [2][5]. - The average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products of wealth management companies declined in November. The average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products by wealth management companies has been oscillating downward since early 2022, and the lower limit of the average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued wealth management products may slowly approach 2.0% [2][12]. - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly in the past two years. The overall interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks in Q3 2025 was 1.63%, a quarterly decline of 9BP and a 54BP decline from the high point in Q4 2023. It is expected to fall below 1.60% in Q4 2025, and the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year - by - year in the next three to five years, which may support the downward oscillation of bond yields [2][20]. - The report is currently bullish on the bond market. The wealth - management scale growth provides strong support for credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years, and the steady decline of bank liability costs is expected to support government bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [2][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 11.11 月理财规模稳步增长 - As of the end of November 2025, the wealth - management scale was 34.0 trillion yuan, reaching a record high. The incremental scale in November 2025 was 0.35 trillion yuan, similar to the seasonal pattern. In 2024, the incremental wealth - management scale was 3.15 trillion yuan, with a large increment in Q2 2024. The incremental scale from April - July 2024 was 3.4 trillion yuan, 1.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, which was related to the impact of standardizing manual interest compensation [5][8]. 2.2025 年 11 月固收理财收益率情况如何？ - The performance comparison benchmark of wealth management products has been continuously declining. In November 2025, the upper limit of the average performance comparison benchmark of newly issued RMB fixed - income wealth management products was 2.76%, and the lower limit was 2.21%, showing a slight rebound from the previous month. It is expected that the lower limit will slowly fall to around 2.0% [12]. - The yield of cash - management wealth management products decreased slightly at a low level in November. As of December 7, 2025, the average 7 - day annualized yield of cash - management wealth management products was 1.23%, while that of money market funds was 1.10%. In the future, the yield of money - related products may further decline slightly [13]. - Due to the adjustment of the bond market in late November, the yield of fixed - income wealth management products declined. The average monthly annualized yield of pure fixed - income wealth management products in November 2025 dropped to 2.42% [17]. 3.投资建议：银行负债成本下降有望支撑债市 - The interest - bearing liability cost rate of A - share listed banks has declined rapidly. It is expected to fall below 1.60% in Q4 2025, and the liability cost of commercial banks will decline year - by - year in the next three to five years, which may support the downward oscillation of bond yields [20]. - China has entered a low - interest - rate era. It is recommended to lower the return expectations for bond investment. The adjustment of long - term bonds is mainly due to institutional behavior, and the long - term bond adjustment may be near the end [23]. - The steady growth of the wealth - management scale will strongly support credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years. In the future, wealth management may increase the proportion of bond holdings and appropriately lengthen the bond holding duration. It is expected that wealth management will significantly increase the allocation of credit bonds with a remaining maturity of less than 3 years and allocate 5 - year credit bonds through amortized - cost open - end bond funds [24].