点石成金：白银：金银比的主跌浪

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 10, 2025, silver futures and spot prices hit new historical highs, with domestic silver reaching 14,300 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver breaking through the $60 per ounce mark. Meanwhile, gold prices remained stable at 950 yuan per gram. The price of silver showed an independent rally, with its price driver shifting from following gold prices in the first half of the year to the gold-silver ratio in the second half. The gold-silver ratio dropped from over 100 in April to below 70, indicating that silver outperformed gold by over 30% during the same period [1]. - The gold-silver ratio's theme this year is "Taco." Whenever the market perceives an improvement in risk appetite, a tendency towards looser liquidity, and a mitigation of liquidity shocks caused by unexpected tariffs and tight US Treasuries, silver strengthens. Historically, in scenarios where market risk appetite is strong, the economic outlook is positive, liquidity expands, and inflationary tendencies are high, silver performs better than gold, and the gold-silver ratio declines [2]. - In the short to medium term, gold has started to be regulated. In late October, China issued a notice canceling the policy of deducting input VAT on gold, tightening the flow of private gold. As gold has strong political attributes and is subject to price controls, while silver's market participants are more market-oriented, silver has begun to express its own logic. A significant amount of silver inventory has been locked in due to the silver bull market, leading to a shortage of physical silver liquidity globally. The COMEX silver inventory has increased by over 50% this year. Market participants are worried about potential tariffs or logistics disruptions in the US, so they have moved silver into the US in advance, causing shortages in London. In September, there was a short squeeze in the London silver market, and the high premium attracted silver from the US and China to Europe. At the end of the year, there were also signs of shortages in the Chinese futures market. Historically, silver rallies driven by the gold-silver ratio usually last about a year. The report believes that the gold-silver ratio will eventually fall below 50, indicating significant upside potential for silver prices [3]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - On December 10, 2025, silver futures and spot prices reached new highs, while gold prices remained stable. The price driver of silver shifted from following gold prices to the gold-silver ratio, and the gold-silver ratio dropped from over 100 in April to below 70, with silver outperforming gold by over 30% [1]. Gold-Silver Ratio Logic - The gold-silver ratio's theme this year is "Taco." When the market perceives improved risk appetite, looser liquidity, and reduced liquidity shocks, silver strengthens. Historically, in favorable economic scenarios, silver outperforms gold, and the gold-silver ratio declines [2]. Short to Medium-Term Changes - Gold has started to be regulated, while silver's market participants are more market-oriented, allowing silver to express its own logic. A large amount of silver inventory has been locked in, leading to a global shortage of physical silver liquidity. The COMEX silver inventory has increased by over 50% this year. Market concerns have led to inventory flows, causing shortages in London and signs of shortages in the Chinese futures market. Historically, silver rallies driven by the gold-silver ratio usually last about a year, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to fall below 50, indicating upside potential for silver prices [3].