PVC日报：震荡下行-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC market is in a weak and volatile state recently. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have some positive effects, factors such as the decline in PVC downstream demand, high inventory, new production capacity, and the traditional off - season in December lead to a weak market sentiment [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89% compared with the previous period, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly, and the orders for downstream products were poor [1]. - India terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, but after the price cut of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December, the export orders declined, and last week's export orders were basically stable [1]. - Social inventory continued to increase last week and is still at a high level, with relatively large inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large [1]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua have been newly put into production. Although relevant departments are studying price - related work to boost bulk commodities, the start - up expectations of some production enterprises are decreasing, and the decline in production is limited. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the traditional off - season in December and the decline in coking coal prices suppress the market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4,311 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,383 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,328 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.39%. The position decreased by 37,746 lots to 881,689 lots [2]. Basis - On December 10, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,320 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,328 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 8 yuan/ton, strengthening by 24 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up of some devices such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu decreased. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into production [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. As of the week of December 7, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 28.93% compared with the previous period, at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% compared with the previous period to 1.0589 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6].