尚无驱动，低位盘整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The commodity market has recovered, and urea opened higher but closed lower before strengthening intraday. The spot prices showed a mixed trend, and the market prices were affected by the futures trend, with low - price orders improving. The current supply - demand logic is relatively in a tight balance, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term. From a macro perspective, there is no obvious boost, but the micro - fundamentals are resilient, and it is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The commodity market has recovered, and urea opened higher and then moved lower, showing an intraday upward trend. The spot prices were mixed, and low - price orders improved. The upstream plants had both shutdowns and restarts, and the gas - based plants were still gradually reducing production. The daily production data did not significantly decrease, and the downstream winter - storage fertilizers and export orders maintained a stable demand increase. The compound fertilizer factories' new orders were not selling well, and their profits were squeezed. The start - up load is expected to continue to rise this week but has limited room for growth. The current inventory decreased by 4.36% month - on - month, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1,650 yuan/ton, opened higher and moved lower, and finally closed at 1,645 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The trading volume was 142,791 lots, a decrease of 7,855 lots. Among the top twenty positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3,426 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,340 lots. The number of urea warehouse receipts on December 10, 2025, was 11,477, a decrease of 249 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot prices were mixed, and the market prices were affected by the futures trend, with low - price orders improving. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,630 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market prices increased today, and the futures closing price also rose. Based on Henan, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis for the January contract was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [6] Supply Data - On December 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 199,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 82.01% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a decrease of 56,300 tons or 4.36% from the previous week [10] Pre - sale Order Days - As of December 10, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.41 days or 5.58% from the previous period [10]