煤焦日报：偏空情绪主导，煤焦弱势运行-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the coke main contract closed at 1,527 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.36%. The position of the main contract was 26,038 lots, a decrease of 1,960 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained unchanged week-on-week. The supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures, but considering the potential macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of coke's decline needs further observation. The main negative risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][35]. - On December 10, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,070 points, with an intraday decline of 1.29%. The position of the main contract was 507,274 lots, an increase of 12,553 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,170 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. The accelerated release of Mongolian coal imports has brought supply - side pressure, leading to the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of this round of decline in coking coal futures needs further observation. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [5][35]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to November, national railway fixed - asset investment reached 753.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, which effectively promoted social investment and supported high - quality economic and social development [7]. - On December 10, the auction prices of coking coal in the Lvliang market decreased. Among the 6 reported transactions, the total listed volume was 83,000 tons, with 58,000 tons sold and a non - sale rate of about 30% (up from 18% last week). The average transaction price of high - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 1,221 yuan/ton, while the average transaction prices of low - sulfur main coking coal were 1,404 yuan/ton and 1,443 yuan/ton respectively. In the short term, prices are weakly stable [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 6.90% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 2.50% | - 8.59% | - 0.85% | - 5.65% | | Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 4.49% | - 5.10% | 0.00% | - 5.10% | | Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,527 yuan/ton | + 0.36% | 1,562 yuan/ton | 1,513.5 yuan/ton | 21,233 lots | 6,900 lots | 26,038 lots | - 1,960 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,070 points | - 1.29% | 1,095.5 points | 1,067 points | 903,929 lots | 117,173 lots | 507,274 lots | 12,553 lots | [12] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port total inventory, and total inventory), coking coal (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant inventory), as well as other relevant data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [13][21][28] Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the impact of coking coal supply pressure on the weak operation of both, while also considering the potential positive factors from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year. The sustainability of the decline in both needs further observation [5][35]