财富管理月报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Equal - weight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Overweight [39] - Japan - Equal - weight [40] - Indian market - Overweight [42] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global stock market in November was generally poor due to insufficient liquidity and the US AI bubble theory. Tech - heavy indices underperformed their respective blue - chip indices. Different regions' stock markets had their own influencing factors, and investment ratings were adjusted based on various factors such as liquidity, interest rate expectations, and corporate earnings [31][33][34] - In the bond market, different regions and types of bonds had different performances in November. The US bond market was mainly influenced by "interest - rate cut games," the Japanese bond yield rose due to economic stimulus plans and inflation expectations, and the Chinese bond market lacked a clear direction [55][59] - The foreign exchange market was affected by central bank policies and interest - rate expectations. The US dollar index was volatile, the yen was weak, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar [63][64] - In the commodity market, gold rose significantly, oil was weak, and copper was in a volatile state, each affected by supply - demand relationships, interest - rate expectations, and geopolitical factors [68] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overseas Macroeconomics 3.1.1 US Macroeconomic Review - ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, indicating a potential 25bp interest - rate cut by the Fed in December [9] - In September, PCE and core PCE inflation data provided support for an interest - rate cut [11] - The November Michigan consumer confidence index was at a low level, which may affect economic recovery [16] - The November manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range but lower than expected, and future factory output expansion may slow down [17] 3.2 Domestic Macroeconomics 3.2.1 Chinese Macroeconomic Review - In October, consumption growth slowed down, affected by car and home - appliance sales [21] - Exports decreased in October, while imports increased. The overall import - export volume in the first 10 months increased [21] - From January to October, fixed - asset investment declined, especially in the manufacturing sector [21] - In October, credit was weak, especially on the household side [21] - Industrial production in October was affected by multiple factors, but equipment and high - tech manufacturing showed good growth [24] - In October, CPI and PPI showed certain trends, and core inflation continued to rise [24] - From January to October, real - estate investment and sales declined, and policy effects were limited [24] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.3.1 November Global Central Bank Policy Review - The Bank of England maintained its benchmark interest rate, with divided views among committee members, related to the upcoming fiscal budget [27] - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged due to rising inflation and uncertain economic prospects [27] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate due to high unemployment [27] 3.4 November Major Stock Market Review and Outlook 3.4.1 Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market in November was generally poor, affected by liquidity and the AI bubble theory. Tech - heavy indices underperformed [31][33] 3.4.2 Regional Stock Market Analysis - US stocks: Despite short - term challenges, they are maintained at an overweight rating due to expected liquidity improvement, interest - rate cut expectations, and new AI narratives [34] - European stocks: They are maintained at an equal - weight rating, affected by multiple factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical issues [35] - Chinese A - shares: Maintained at an equal - weight rating, with policy, capital, and structural opportunities as key points [36] - Hong Kong stocks: Upgraded to an overweight rating due to expected profit improvement, attractive valuations, and improved liquidity [39] - Japan: Maintained at an equal - weight rating, with interest - rate hike expectations and government stimulus policies as influencing factors [40] - Indian market: Upgraded to an overweight rating due to central bank support, potential trade agreements, and reasonable valuations [41] 3.5 November Chinese Offshore Debt Market Review and Outlook 3.5.1 Primary Market - In November, 70 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese offshore debt, including 23 US - dollar bonds worth $10.21 billion and 47 offshore RMB bonds worth 82.35 billion RMB. Issuance increased compared to the previous month but was lower than the same period last year for US - dollar bonds [47] 3.5.2 Secondary Market - As of November 30, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US - dollar investment - grade bond index rose, while the high - yield bond index fell. Different sectors such as real estate, urban investment, and finance also had different performance trends [50][52] 3.6 November Overseas Bond Market Performance Review and Outlook 3.6.1 November Major Bond Market Performance - Different bond indices in the US, Europe, Asia, etc., had different performance trends in November, with yields and returns varying [55] 3.6.2 Regional Bond Market Analysis - US: The bond market was affected by "interest - rate cut games," and yields showed a "first - up - then - down" trend [59] - Japan: Bond yields rose due to economic stimulus plans and inflation expectations [59] - China: The bond market lacked a clear direction, but future sentiment may improve [59] 3.7 November Foreign Exchange Market Performance Review and Outlook - The US dollar index was volatile, affected by Fed officials' views on interest - rate cuts. The yen was weak, and the RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar [63][64] 3.8 November Commodity Market Performance Review and Outlook - Gold rose significantly, driven by interest - rate cut expectations and central bank gold purchases. Oil was weak due to oversupply concerns, and copper was volatile due to supply and demand factors [68] 3.9 This Month's Selected Funds - Various types of funds, including money - market funds, bond funds, and stock funds from different regions, are presented with their performance data [70]