PP日报：震荡下行-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to potential new PP capacity and the exit of the agricultural film peak season. The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and the macro situation lacks further positive factors, resulting in a light spot trading atmosphere [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawstring PP, remained flat at 44.1% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - On December 10, there were little changes in maintenance facilities, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 25.5% [1][4]. - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventories increased significantly, and currently, petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.9 million tons week - on - week, 400,000 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4]. - On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq resumed production, and combined with the continuous decline in the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States, crude oil prices dropped [1]. - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance facilities decreased slightly recently. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products are starting to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a decline, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and the promotion of the market is limited. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,161 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,220 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,162 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.14%. The position volume decreased by 30,955 lots to 380,203 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6,010 - 6,380 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 10, there were little changes in maintenance facilities, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 5, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawstring PP, remained flat at 44.1% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.9 million tons week - on - week, 400,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 02 dropped to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [5].