尿素期货周报-20251210

Report Summary - Report Title: Urea Futures Weekly Report - Report Date: December 7, 2025 - Report Cycle: Weekly - Researcher: He Ning Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report's Core View - Last week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the urea futures rose first and then fell. The increase was mainly due to the steady increase in spot prices and the continuous active trading volume. The trading sentiment in the spot market was good, with sufficient orders from urea factories and a lack of willingness to adjust prices in the short term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Contract Quotes: This week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the prices of each contract of urea futures showed little difference overall, and the market showed fluctuations. The closing price of Urea 2602 (UR602) was 1,675 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 1,678 yuan/ton, a highest price of 1,707 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 1,672 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.24%, a trading volume of 58,600 lots, and a position volume of 24,000 lots. The closing price of Urea 2601 (UR601) was 1,673 yuan/ton, with an opening price of 1,682 yuan/ton, a highest price of 1,710 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 1,670 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.24%, a trading volume of 582,000 lots, and a position volume of 200,000 lots [3]. 2. Spot Market - Basis Data: According to the quotation on December 5, the small - particle urea of Hualu Hengsheng in East China was 1,710 yuan/ton (basis of 37 yuan/ton), that of Henan Xinlianxin in Central China was 1,710 yuan/ton (basis of 37 yuan/ton), and that of Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China was 1,500 yuan/ton (basis of - 173 yuan/ton), reflecting local demand differences but with mild overall fluctuations [6]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of December 5, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts of urea were 10,485 lots, a significant increase compared to last week [10]. 3. Influencing Factors - Industry News: On the supply side, the current urea production capacity and daily output are at relatively high levels in recent years, and it is expected that the daily output will hardly be lower than 190,000 tons this year. The high - level supply has a significant suppressing effect on prices, but the continuous and flexible adjustment of export policies has continuously alleviated the fundamental pressure and weakened the downward momentum of prices to some extent. On the demand side, after a round of concentrated procurement by downstream enterprises, whether the trading volume can continue to increase at the current price level still needs to be observed. Notably, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts has been continuously increasing, and the phased replenishment has gradually reduced the industrial inventory, alleviating the inventory pressure and providing some support for the market [11]. 4. Market Outlook - Last week, the urea futures rose first and then fell, supported by the strengthening of spot prices and active trading volume. The supply side remained at a high level in recent years, but the adjustment of export policies alleviated some pressure. On the demand side, the phased replenishment by downstream enterprises drove the decline of industrial inventory, providing some support for the market. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may fluctuate within a range [13][14].