2026年旅游及免税行业展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the tourism and duty-free industry, with expectations of recovery and growth in the coming years [11][21]. Core Insights - The tourism market is experiencing a comprehensive recovery in 2025, with domestic travel numbers and spending surpassing pre-pandemic levels [12][13]. - The duty-free market is expected to benefit from policy adjustments and the expansion of the duty-free shopping framework, particularly in Hainan [30][33]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of travel as a lifestyle necessity, despite economic fluctuations [21][31]. Summary by Sections Tourism Industry Overview - Domestic travel in China is projected to reach 1.038 trillion USD by 2027, with a CAGR of 7% from 2025 to 2027 [19]. - In the first half of 2025, domestic travel numbers reached 3.285 billion, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, while spending reached 3.15 trillion CNY, up 15.2% [12]. Duty-Free Market Trends - The duty-free sales in Hainan saw a significant increase following policy changes, with sales amounting to 23.8 billion CNY in November 2025, a 27.1% year-on-year increase [32]. - The report anticipates a shift towards a collaborative growth model in the duty-free market, integrating island, city, and port sales [33]. Future Opportunities - The expansion of visa-free travel and the recovery of international flights are expected to drive inbound tourism and duty-free consumption [21]. - The upcoming full closure of Hainan's free trade port is anticipated to enhance the local consumption potential and attract more tourists [30]. Company Analysis - China Duty Free Group (1880.HK) is positioned as a market leader with a significant share in the domestic duty-free market, benefiting from ongoing policy optimizations [37]. - Hong Kong Travel (308.HK) is diversifying its revenue streams and focusing on high-value tourism projects, which may enhance its profitability as the market recovers [41]. - Meilan Airport (357.HK) is expected to benefit from increased passenger traffic and improved operational efficiency following the implementation of the free trade policies [46].