沥青日报：震荡运行-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Factors include the low asphalt production rate, reduced production volume in December, weakening demand, and the current market's cautious attitude towards winter storage contracts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons month-on-month (3.1%) and 344,000 tons year-on-year (13.8%). This week, Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1] - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries varied. The road asphalt operating rate remained unchanged at 29% compared with the previous week, restricted by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, subsequent demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited, with overall demand being average [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week and is still near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - Crude oil price: Some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, causing the crude oil price to fluctuate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.24% to 2,940 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,916 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 2,953 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 4,156 to 205,972 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to -13 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Investment: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate remained the same as from January to September. From January to October, the actual completed investment in fixed assets in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. From January to October, the completed investment in fixed assets in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, continuing to decline from 1.1% from January to September [4] - Social financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4] - Inventory: As of the week of December 5, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28, and is near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]