Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 10, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and various industry information providers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View As of the close on December 10, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver and container shipping to Europe had significant increases, while others such as alumina and soda ash declined. The performance of each commodity was affected by factors including supply - demand relationships, production conditions, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic expectations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shanghai silver rose over 5%, container shipping to Europe rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, iron ore, soybeans, polysilicon, and soybeans No. 2 rose nearly 2% [6] - Losers: Alumina fell over 3%, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon, and styrene fell over 2%, log, pure benzene, PVC, palm oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, staple fiber, polypropylene, and propylene fell over 1% [7] - Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.15%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.35%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.39%, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.26% [7] - Bond Futures: 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.06%, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.06%, 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract rose 0.30% [7] 3.2 Market Analysis by Commodity 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Market Trend: Opened low and moved lower, with weak intraday fluctuations - Production: In November, the production rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower than the previous month and the same period last year. In December, 4 smelters are expected to have maintenance, and production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, and the production of copper plate and strip and copper rod is affected by cost and order issues [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% intraday - Production: In November, production continued to grow, and in December, it is expected to increase by about 3%. The capacity utilization rate this week is 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year [10][11] - Demand: Downstream production continues to grow but at a slower pace, and the impact of energy storage demand needs further verification [11] - Inventory: In November, the inventory decreased slightly after 5 consecutive months of decline [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US production is at a high level, and global floating storage is increasing. Some oil fields have resumed production [12] - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and US refined product inventories have increased more than expected [12] - Geopolitics: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and the US - Venezuela military confrontation has intensified [12] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9%. In December, the planned output is 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year [15] - Demand: Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and overall demand is average [15] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93%. The enterprise operating rate is about 84%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire has decreased. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have decreased slightly [16][17] - Demand: Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, orders have decreased, and the market lacks large - scale purchases [16][17] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The operating rate is about 90%. New capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has decreased, and the peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end. Orders have continued to decline, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [18] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The operating rate has decreased slightly to 79.89%, and new capacity has been put into operation. Social inventories are still high [19][20] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage [20] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Opened high and moved high but fell more than 1% intraday - Supply: Near the end of the year, imported coal has increased, and the production rate of coal mines has decreased slightly. Some factories may reduce production after completing their annual tasks [21] - Demand: Iron water production has decreased, and coking and steel mills are in the off - season. The demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline [21] - Inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased, while the inventory of mines has increased significantly [21] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but short - term demand may increase due to restocking [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Opened high and moved low, then strengthened intraday - Supply: Upstream devices have both shutdowns and restarts, and the daily production has not decreased significantly [23] - Demand: Downstream winter storage and export orders are stable. The new orders of compound fertilizer factories are not good, and the operating rate is approaching the high - point of the same period in recent years [23] - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline, and the current supply - demand logic is relatively balanced [23] - Price Outlook: Short - term strength, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [23]
每日核心期货品种分析-20251210
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-12-10 11:22