通胀数据点评：如何理解CPI与PPI再度分化？

Inflation Data Overview - November CPI increased to 0.7% YoY, up from 0.2% in the previous month, and in line with expectations, while MoM decreased by 0.1%[1][7] - PPI fell to -2.2% YoY, slightly worse than the previous month's -2.1% and worse than the expected -2%, with a MoM increase of 0.1%[1][7] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by structural factors, with food prices contributing significantly; food CPI rose 3.1 percentage points to 0.2% YoY[2][8] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw YoY CPI increases of 21.8% and 2.7%, respectively, reaching 14.5% and 0.7%[2][8] - Pork prices, heavily influenced by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a YoY CPI of -15%[2][8] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% YoY[3][16] - Excluding gold, core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, indicating weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions[3][16] PPI Dynamics - PPI was influenced by rising coal prices (up 9.5% MoM) and copper prices, contributing positively to PPI, while steel and oil prices declined, negatively impacting PPI[4][25] - The overall PPI was constrained by weak downstream price transmission, with a MoM increase of 0.1%[4][25] Future Outlook - Commodity prices may rise further, but the impact on downstream prices is expected to be gradual, with PPI projected to stabilize at -2.1% in December and recover slowly in 2026[4][26] - CPI is anticipated to see moderate recovery, supported by rising PPI and pork prices, but constrained by slowing gold price increases and subsidy reductions[4][29]