有色金属日报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, representing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The overall non - ferrous metals market shows different trends and characteristics. Some metals are affected by factors such as Fed meetings, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations, and investors need to make decisions based on specific metal fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt fluctuated, with spot copper reported at 91,700 yuan, and Shanghai copper premium shrank to 30 yuan. Hold a small number of long positions and pay attention to Powell's speech tendency after the Fed rate cut is implemented [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Silver hit a new high, and non - ferrous metals rebounded. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widened. The medium - term upward - oscillating trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short - term upside space is limited. The price of Baotai ADC12 increased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the tax policy adjustment is unclear. The spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum may narrow at the end of the year. Alumina supply is in surplus, and it will operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [2] Zinc - Domestic and foreign zinc concentrate TC continued to decline. In December, domestic zinc ingot output is expected to decrease by about 28,000 tons. SMM zinc social inventory dropped to 136,000 tons. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the price is supported. The upward space is limited by the traditional consumption off - season, with resistance at 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel price rebounded and then pulled back, and market trading was light. The pessimism in the stainless - steel market persists. Although there were production cut news, the actual reduction in November was insufficient. Nickel inventory increased, and it is more reasonable to short at high levels [5] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions significantly, and the closing gain expanded. There is a safety risk warning in the eastern Congo (Kinshasa). The short - term price fluctuates greatly. It is advisable to hold a short - call option on the 2601 contract with an exercise price of 315,000 yuan [6] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded strongly, and market trading recovered. The price is supported after the correction. The total market inventory decreased, and the mine - end quotation is strong. The futures price fluctuates at a high level, and the fundamentals are strong [7] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon continued to decline after breaking through the previous low. The fundamentals are weak, with reduced demand and difficult inventory reduction. The market is focused on the 8,000 yuan/ton level [8] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures fluctuated and pulled back. After the establishment of the polysilicon consortium, the details of the purchase and storage are not clear. The industry fundamentals are still weak, but the short - term upward drive exists, and the effectiveness of breaking through the upper limit needs policy verification [9]