通胀数据点评（25.11）：如何理解CPI与PPI再度分化？

Inflation Data Overview - November CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in the previous month, meeting expectations[1] - November PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the previous month's -2.1% and expectations of -2%[1] CPI Analysis - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by structural factors, including a low base effect and reduced supply in certain food categories, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which saw increases of 21.8% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Pork prices, significantly affected by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a year-on-year CPI of -15%[2] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year[3] - Excluding gold, core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, indicating weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions[3] PPI Dynamics - PPI showed a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month, with coal prices rising by 9.5% month-on-month due to anti-involution effects, contributing 0.3% to PPI[4] - However, lower prices in steel and oil negatively impacted PPI, leading to a net decrease of 0.2%[4] Future Outlook - Commodity prices may continue to rise, but the impact on downstream prices from anti-involution trends is expected to be gradual, with PPI projected to stabilize at -2.1% in December and recover slowly in 2026[5] - CPI is anticipated to see a mild recovery, supported by rising PPI and pork prices, but constrained by slowing gold price increases and subsidy reductions, with a year-end CPI forecast of around 0.6%[5]