Ping An Securities·2025-12-10 13:28Group 1: Oil Market Insights - The report indicates that the oil price is expected to trend downward, with Brent crude oil potentially averaging around $52 per barrel in 2026 due to OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical tensions providing temporary support [3][16][20] - In 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices averaged $63.8 and $59.0 per barrel, reflecting year-on-year declines of 16.8% and 19.3% respectively, driven by oversupply and geopolitical uncertainties [13][16] - OPEC+ is expected to continue releasing production capacity, with a forecasted increase in global oil supply of approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, while demand growth is projected to be around 1.1 million barrels per day [20][24][29] Group 2: Natural Gas Market Insights - The report highlights that global LNG supply is expected to become more abundant in 2026, with significant projects from the US, Qatar, and Canada coming online, leading to a potential decrease in LNG prices in Asia and Europe [3][9][20] - The report anticipates that US natural gas prices may rise due to increased demand from liquefaction facilities, while European gas prices could decline as the region adjusts its import structure [3][20] - Seasonal weather patterns, including a potential cold snap in late 2025, may drive up natural gas prices temporarily, particularly in Europe [3][20] Group 3: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a tightening supply situation in the second half of 2025, with domestic production constraints and inventory reductions leading to a price rebound [3][20] - The report forecasts that the reasonable price level for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port will be around 750 RMB per ton in 2026, while coking coal prices are expected to range between 1600-1800 RMB per ton [3][20] - Demand for thermal coal is projected to stabilize as coal-fired power generation reaches its peak, while coking coal demand may see slight increases due to improved steel manufacturing and export needs [3][20] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource-leading companies with high dividends and cost advantages in the oil and gas sector, such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, as well as diversified urban gas companies like China Gas and Kunlun Energy [8] - In the coal sector, companies with integrated operations in coal, electricity, and chemicals, such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy, are recommended due to their resilient performance and potential for price recovery [8]