螺纹热卷日报-20251210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by real - estate stimulus policy rumors, the black - metal sector rose today, with iron ore leading the increase, but coking coal still fell before the close. Steel spot trading was generally fair, with increased low - price speculation and futures - cash purchases, while rigid demand was average. This week, building materials production decreased rapidly, while plate production increased slightly. Steel inventories decreased overall, with social inventory decreasing faster than factory inventory. Affected by seasonality, rebar demand dropped significantly, but hot - rolled demand continued to rise. It is expected that pig iron production will continue to decline this week, but blast - furnace profits have recovered, reducing the drive for active production cuts. Recently, coal and coke prices dropped sharply, driving steel prices down, but in December, coal supply may shrink again, and steel mills have restocking expectations. With a structural shortage of iron ore PB powder, steel costs are supported. Although building materials demand declines seasonally, it is not weaker than the seasonal average, and manufacturing demand is still supported. Therefore, short - term steel prices will remain range - bound with raw materials, and the performance may be weaker than in November. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. - Unilateral trading is expected to maintain a slightly upward - trending oscillation. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled - coal ratio and the hot - rolled - rebar spread at high prices. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3250 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3150 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3280 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3190 yuan (unchanged) [4]. Market Research and Judgment - Transaction Strategy: - Unilateral: Maintain a slightly upward - trending oscillation [6]. - Arbitrage: Short the hot - rolled - coal ratio and the hot - rolled - rebar spread at high prices [6]. - Options: Wait and see [6]. - Important Information: - In November, the global blast - furnace steel mill pig iron production was 104.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78 million tons (4.4% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. Excluding mainland China, the sample production of other countries and regions was 34.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11 million tons (3.1% decline) and a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The average daily pig iron production of blast - furnace steel mills outside mainland China in November was 1.1401 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.001 million tons (0.09% increase) [7][8]. - China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year (in line with expectations, compared with 0.2% in the previous month), and the PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year (expected to decrease by 2%, compared with a 2.1% decrease in the previous month) [8]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes 31 figures showing various data such as steel prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [9][11][12]...[49].